COUNTRY PLAGUED BY MILITARY JUNTA AND ECONOMIC
DOWNTURN
The horrific bombing in Thailand’s capital Bangkok on Monday 17
August killed 20 people. 125 of those injured needed hospital care. While
no-one has taken responsibility for the bomb, the explosion can have big
repercussions for both the ruling military junta and the country’s struggling
economy.
The three kilo bomb caused huge devastation in a crowded street
close to the skytrain intersection, Ratchaprasong, and the Hindu shrine,
Erawan. It was 7pm and most of those killed and injured were tourists from other
Asian countries. The Hindu shrine, in a Buddhist-dominated country, is
attractive since it is supposed to be a place for prayers and wishes being
made.
Central Bangkok has not experienced any similar bomb attack
before. It does not have the trademark of the Muslim/Malay separatists of
southern Thailand, who have never attacked Bangkok. The bomb has caused
widespread fear and speculation. A second bomb on Tuesday, at another skytrain
station close to the river, however, was smaller and did not injure anyone.
The bomb explosion came a week after the military stated its goal
to keep power for as long as possible. And, at the same time, the country’s
economy has been hit by the devaluations of the Chinese yuan currency. But
terrorism is no solution and this attack must be condemned outright for the
suffering it has caused to ordinary people. It will change nothing. In fact, it
will be used as an excuse for tightening measures that can be used against
genuine oppositionists.
The military junta
Prime Minister and General, Prayut Chan-o-cha, has been the
de-facto dictator of Thailand since May 2014. Anyone doubting that can just
read the Bangkok Post or follow any media in the country to see him everywhere.
He will now use the attack to strengthen the grip of the military further,
calling it "the worst incident that has ever happened in Thailand".
Since the military coup last year, the junta - the National
Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) - has arrested more than 1,000 politicians
and activists. Most of them are from the formerly ruling Pheu Thai Party. All
protests and political meetings are illegal.
In late June, 14 students were arrested for holding a rally at
their university, against military rule. They were charged with breaking the
ban on political gatherings and held in prison, waiting for a military court
trial. However, the Prayut regime, offered “talks” with the students in order
to stem further protests. Prayut told Bangkok Post that he wanted the protest
to stop “because he feels uncomfortable seeing them face legal action”. This
threat, combined with a “check to see if political groups are behind it” was
used to put pressure on the families of the students.
Originally, the junta stated there would be new elections this
year, 2015. They were then moved to 2016, and now they are supposed to take
place in 2017.
It also clear that Prayut has a “road map” that will guide any
coming civilian government. The draft charter for a new constitution includes
making “populism” illegal and having a Senate dominated by non-elected
senators. In addition, the Constitution Drafting Committee last week proposed a
“special crisis committee” to oversee the constitution and its so-called
reforms. “The panel, comprised of the PM, House and Senate Speaker, leaders of
the armed forces and police chief among others, will remain in place for five
years after the charter is promulgated.” (Bangkok Post 17 August).
The political parties
Over the last decade, Thai politics have been dominated by the
struggle between two parties - Pheu Thai and the Democrats. The Pheu Thai was
founded by the telecom billionaire, Thaksin Shinawatra, who won elections on
populist policies such as cheap loans, subsidies and an increased minimum wage.
Through this, he won a stronghold in the populous rural parts in the north of
the country.
Thaksin was overthrown by the military in 2006. The military, the
monarchy and the Democrats, supported by a big share of the national
capitalists, thought he had gone too far.
In 2010, violent street clashes took place between supporters of
Pheu Thai - the ‘red shirts’ - and Democrats - the ‘yellow shirts’. The
military intervened heavily against the red shirts, and more the 100
demonstrators were killed. The slogans of the red shirts were for equality and
democracy.
The Pheu Thai Party continued to win elections after the junta had
resigned in 2011. With Thaksin in exile, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra became
Prime Minister until the new junta’s coup last year. The Democrat Party
supported the coup, and as in 2006, the US administration seemed supportive or
at least was consulted.
Since the coup, the Pheu Thai Party, has adjusted itself to the
military. The “road map” of Prayut wants a “reconciliation government”, with
both parties. The two parties have also supported delaying elections for at
least two years and a referendum to legitimise the new constitution.
The economy
The military junta has acted to reverse “populism” and step up
neo-liberalism. In June, Prayut stated that the free health care which Thaksin
implemented in 2001 was “too costly”. The scheme covers 47 million Thais, two
thirds of the population, who pay only 30 baht (less than a euro) when visiting
a doctor. Already, the junta has abolished subsidies on rice and gas. The
minimum wage has been frozen.
These measures, however, have not led to increased growth.
Instead, one result has been a cut in domestic demand. The pattern is similar
to many other emerging markets. The baht currency has lost value as capital has
left the country, mainly because of the expected increase in US interest rates.
The central bank responded with two cuts to interest rates in April, but the
economy is still in technical deflation (falling prices).
The official prognosis for growth has been cut several times this
year, from 3.8 percent to 2.7 percent. The central bank estimates exports will
drop by 3.5 percent in 2015. Last week’s devaluation of the Chinese yuan will
increase the pressure on the economy further.
The bombing in Bangkok threatens to have a big economic impact.
Tourism accounts for 10 percent of the country’s economy, and has been even
more important, in the context of a falling currency. There are definitely
fears in Thailand of another Asian crisis as in 1997, when the country’s
economy was severely hit.
It remains to be seen who was behind the bomb attack in Bangkok.
Some suspicion is said to have fallen on expatriate Uighurs or their
sympathisers. More than 100 were recently accused of being terrorists and
deported to China.
However, the situation in Thailand shows the urgent need for a
political party that fights for workers and poor people. Global capitalism and
the present military rulers have only new crises in store. Active workers and
students in Thailand should study the history of previous struggles, and aim to
form their own political voice with a socialist programme.
The CWI has raised these
demands for Thailand:
• No to terrorism; yes to mass struggle
• For a united struggle of workers, poor farmers, students and
other oppressed people
• No to the rule of generals; end the monarchy
• Organise the election of a genuine, representative Revolutionary
Constituent Assembly
• For the building of a mass workers’ and poor farmers’ party
fighting for a majority to form a government
• Trade union rights for the armed forces rank and file - win poor
soldiers to the struggles of working people
• Full rights for the oppressed Muslim population in the South of
Thailand and all other minorities
• No to neo-liberal policies; for democratic public ownership of
major industries, large private land-holdings and banks
• For an economy planned to meet the needs of the working people
and poor farmers, under the democratic control and management of elected
committees from the working class and small farmers
• For a socialist Thailand, as part of a socialist federation
throughout South East Asia
Per-Ake Westerlund, Rattvisepartiet
Socialisterna (CWI in Sweden)
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