SRI LANKA: BLOODY END TO WAR, NO END TO NATIONAL CONFLICT

SOCIALISTS CONTINUE FIGHT AGAINST RAJAPAKSE DICTATORSHIP

The Sri Lankan government is engaged in what it sees as its final battle to defeat the dwindling Tamil Tiger forces in the north of the country. It ignores all pleas, including now from the United Nations, to suspend fighting in order to release thousands of men women and children to safety.

The ghastly civil war in Sri Lanka, that has been raging for more than 25 years, appears to be ending in what an International Red Cross worker called "Nothing short of a catastrophe". As the Sri Lankan Army broke through what appeared to be the last defences of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam on 20 April, tens of thousands of terrorised civilians poured out in a dazed mass. Hundreds of thousands, including an estimated 50,000 children, had been trapped in a tiny strip of land euphemistically called by the government a 'no-fire' zone but described by a Human Rights Watch director as "one of the most dangerous places in the world".

Hospitals and churches in which survivors sheltered were bombed. Doctors struggling to treat the horribly injured, who dared to raise their voices against the carnage and the blocking of medical and food aid, face disciplinary action. The United Nations reported 4,500 killed in the first three months of this year. Hundreds more were slaughtered in the merciless onslaught by the Sri Lankan Army north of Mullaitivu aimed at "crushing" the LTTE and forcing its leaders into complete, unconditional surrender.

"How the war ends will be critical to Sri Lanka's future," warned Robert Temple of the International Crisis Group. If in a "bloody massacre", its memory "would be used to incite decades more war and terrorism". In the same issue of the Independent on 22 April, Asian affairs expert, Charu Lata Hogg, predicted: "Victory in the battlefield will remain hollow; an aggrieved minority at home and an embittered diaspora abroad will ensure that peace remains elusive in Sri Lanka". It is doubtful whether any Tamil – inside or outside Sri Lanka - will ever forget these last few months of wholesale carnage or forgive the ministers and generals they hold responsible.

The living hell for those who have lost their homes, family members, their livelihoods will not end soon. Starving mothers will still be unable to suckle their babies. Famished children will continue to die from illnesses brought on by malnutrition. Men and boys, sometimes girls too, will continue to be taken at gunpoint from their families. Herded into concentration camps, surrounded by barbed wire, inadequately housed, fed or cared for, thousands more Tamil people will die and thousands more will lose hope of ever living a normal life.

Humanitarian organisations and aid agencies still struggle to get into the area. So do journalists and TV crews. Sri Lankan media personnel and opposition figures who dare to tell the truth about the Rajapakse dictatorship and its frenzied 'war on terror', have become targets for the killers on motor bikes or in white vans who do the dirty work of the state. Many have left the country to survive.

Socialists in Sri Lanka the country are living through one of the darkest periods in their history. Leaders of the United Socialist Party, affiliated to the Committee for a Workers' International, have consistently warned that a military defeat of the Tamil Tigers will not bring an end to the deep-seated national conflict in Sri Lanka. Capitalist commentators, like Mark McDonald reporting from Colombo to the International Herald Tribune, say the same. Anger at "decades of official marginalization, resentment over discriminatory education policies and suppression of the Tamil language by administrations dominated by the Sinhala Buddhist majority will linger...". (Tamils make up around 17% of the 21million population and Sinhalese about 74%.) As he points out, other issues bear down on poverty-stricken Tamils in the central plantation areas as well as in the war-devastated North and East. Massive government investment in schools, infrastructure, housing and job creation are needed in addition to genuine political autonomy and freedom from discrimination.

But capitalism in Sri Lanka, at its weakest and most indebted state since independence, is incapable of fulfilling these demands. The majority of the Sinhala workers and small farmers have felt no benefits of being part of a favoured majority. The vast sums needed to finance the war have caused prices on basic goods to fluctuate wildly with inflation reaching as much as 30% in some periods. It is also behind the sharp rise in the number of unemployed private and public sector workers.

Regional power play

The 'end' of the war has long been promised by the Rajapakse gang in power. Even this year it was going to be finished by 4 February - Freedom Day, marking independence from the British and a good day to celebrate freedom from terrorism! Then it was going to be the Sri Lankan New Year – 13 and 14 April, or in time to affect the outcome of the next round of provincial elections on 25 April. At the latest, it seems, the war had to be over by the end of April to qualify for a massive $1.9bn loan from the International Monetary Fund. If the loan is secured and the war continues, this foreign currency will be used for the procurement of more deadly armaments – from Israel, Iran, Pakistan … If not, it will be used for payments in the region of $900million on the massive loans already taken to pay for the war. One of the conditions laid down by the IMF is a 50% devaluation of the rupee which will mean massive increases in the cost of living.

International capitalism has urged an end to the civil war in Sri Lanka for its own reasons. Mainly in order to get back to the business of making profit out of trade and industry but also to capture lucrative contracts for reconstruction and development. This applies especially to India which now has vast interests in Sri Lanka.

Satya Sivaran, a 'frequent visitor to Sri Lanka' on behalf of his Church, wrote to the 'Campaign against the slaughter of Tamils', exposing the real reason for India's support for the murderous Rajapakse government: Ashok Leyland and Tata Mercedes enjoy a near monopoly for heavy vehicles and Bajoj for auto rickshaws are the only brand available in the country. More recently the Indian Oil Corporation has leased the prestigious and strategic Trincomalee Harbour for berthing their tankers.

Abbey Naidoo wrote in February in the South African Post: "India has revealed a duplicitous and murderous collaboration with the genocidal regime in power in Colombo. Not only deaf to the pleas and cries of its own Tamil population to intervene in this murderous onslaught, it actively assists the regime in the supply of military hardware, the training of strike aircraft pilots, the supply of military expertise and the provision of military advisers on the ground".

In the view of the Financial Times of 26 February, one of the factors behind the impending military defeat of the Tamil Tigers was "the competition between India and China for regional influence [which] has led to a huge inflow of Chinese money and arms - with no tut-tutting about Sri Lanka's appalling human rights record". But, it maintains, the seeds were sown five years ago with the defection of the Tigers' commander in the East, Karuna, who took half their army over to the side of the government.

Chauvinist Reaction

Two years later, whipping up 'patriotic', anti-Tamil reaction, Rajapakse came to power. He had the support of the Sinhala chauvinist JVP (People's Liberation Front) and the Buddhist monks' organisation the JHU. For the first time in Sri Lanka's history, a president was elected on the votes of Sinhalese only. He proceeded to tear up a four year old cease-fire brokered with the LTTE by Norwegian emissaries, and to ruthlessly pursue his goal of becoming the first Sinhala ruler of a "united" Sri Lankan state.

The LTTE, led by Velupilai Prabhakaran, had once controlled nearly the whole of the North and East of the island. Not only was there a kind of Tiger civil service, and border control points manned by LTTE forces. There were tax officers, police and even Tiger speed cops. It had at least 12,000 fighting cadres – land forces, naval fighters (the 'Sea Tigers'), a merchant navy and a primitive 'air force' capable of carrying bombs to Colombo from the Wanni jungles. The tactic of using human beings as suicide bombers was a gruesome but deadly invention of the LTTE and carried out by the venerated 'Black Tigers'. Enormous heroism and self-sacrifice was shown by young fighters but terrible consequences flowed from the military and political methods employed. One of their blunders was to instruct Tamils not to vote in the presidential election of 2005 – a tactic which allowed the rabid chauvinist, Rajapakse to defeat the UNP leader Ranil Wickeramasinghe by a small margin.

They had already been mortally wounded by the defection of Karuna. Now he has gone the whole way - joining the ruling SLFP and being and been rewarded with the post of minister of national integration! With him, in effect, was lost the whole of the Eastern part of the territory claimed to be part of the Eelam homeland.

The Tigers imagined they could win an all-out military victory against the Sri Lankan state and the 50,000 soldiers sent against them. They made spectacular advances in the early stages but were severely hampered by the banning of their organisation in Europe, the US, Canada, India and elsewhere and its effect on funds and supplies. In the end their fighting force probably amounted to little more than 1,000 in their last redoubt near Mullaitivu. But a return of guerilla warfare is inevitable, as long as the Tamil people provide the water in which the fish can swim safely.

Right of self-determination

"The absence of war is not peace!" as the New York Times was reminded recently by a retired Indian Army general. Ashok Kumar Mehta had participated in his country's ill-fated peace-keeping mission in the late 1980s. (This involvement of Indian government troops was firmly opposed at the time by those members of the Nava Sama Samaja Party who were later to become the Marxist Workers' Tendency, fore-runners of the United Socialist Party of today, and by the international leadership of the Committee for a Workers' International. It was tragically borne out that the interests of the Indian bourgeoisie were not those of the ordinary working and poor Tamils. They ended up shooting and killing the very people they had supposedly come to defend and many of their own number perished.)

Socialists maintain that national conflicts, fostered by imperialism and exacerbated by the privations and inabilities of capitalism to provide for all, cannot be overcome on a capitalist basis. The struggle for socialism has inscribed on its banner the basic democratic demand of the right of nations to self-determination. The early Sri Lankan Trotskyist leader, Colvin De Silva warned that not giving the Tamils' language the same equal official status as Sinhala would engender national resentment capable of dividing the two communities. He adopted the formula: "Two languages one country; one language two countries" which unfortunately was not implemented.

The United Socialist Party, has unflinchingly defended the right of the Tamil-speaking people of Sri Lanka to live without fear of oppression or discrimination. It has also had inscribed on its banner the right of the Tamil people to self-determination, up to and including separation and independence, if they wish it. No government of Sri Lanka has allowed the people to freely express what they see as the best arrangement for protecting their rights. The 'Tigers' have always claimed to represent the Tamil people and have broad support. But they have never fully tested their political feelings in a genuine democratically-conducted referendum and have sometimes shown themselves intolerant of political opposition.

On the other hand, there are those who were on the Sri Lankan left who have given up on advocating the right to self-determination, let alone idea of socialism. Some have ended up in the camp of the present chauvinistic, anti-working class government of Rajapakse. Others have allied in elections, in an unprincipled fashion with capitalist parties such as the United National Party.

When it has been necessary to form a temporary front with some of these forces on a single issue such as 'Stop the War' or no to dictatorial powers, this has been done by the USP in a principled and careful fashion, maintaining an independent programme for a struggle against capitalism. Marching separately, striking together.

The USP has also put forward the idea that, if a separate state or large measure of self-rule was established, within it there should be guarantees of the rights of minorities within it, up to and including autonomous areas for Muslims and for Sinhalese people. In elections in the East of the island, the USP has been the only party with candidates on its list from all three main communities – Tamil, Muslim and Sinhala. There and in the Hill Country, USP campaigners have warned against false friends of the poor and working people in the form of the unprincipled leaders of the Muslim Congress and the Ceylon Workers' Congress who tend so often to take the side of whoever wins! For this, election candidates and campaigners of the USP have been physically attacked and also imprisoned on faked charges.

In the present situation in Sri Lanka, with not one of the major problems resolved, no outside force can change the situation. The United Nations Security Council finally discussed, on April 22 how to bring an end to the humanitarian nightmare in Sri Lanka. But, as faithful representatives of their own ruling elites, as usual, no agreement was reached to 'interfere' in the internal affairs of Sri Lanka. A few weeks ago, New Labour in Britain finally decided to send an envoy, Des Browne, to Sri Lanka. He was not even allowed into the country – the move dismissed by the Rajapakse government as a "Disrespectful intrusion" into Sri Lanka's affairs!

Getting away with murder

The astounding silence of the big powers has allowed the Rajapakse government to literally get away with murder – mass murder! And with no witnesses. Only when it was too late to save the lives of thousands of men, women and children, did western governments begin to make their faint voices heard. And only when hundreds of thousands of furious Tamils turned out for mass protests across the world and when desperate young men in London, Australia, Canada and India have been showing themselves prepared to die, through hunger strikes or self-immolation, to get justice for their people.

In India it was the pressure of mass, sometimes violent, demonstrations in Tamil Nadu - of striking students and lawyers - which finally evinced the mild pleadings from Sonja Gandhi and one or two government leaders for Rajapakse to agree to a permanent cease-fire. But he will still bank on support from the majority in Sri Lanka, including some Tamil people, who simply want the war over.

The dictator-president in Sri Lanka, rules through decree, the use of vast emergency powers and also sheer thuggery. War weariness has not been enough to guarantee him the kind of victory he wants in the provincial council elections of 25 April in Colombo. It is reported that he has ordered the release of convicted gangsters from the prisons to go to the Tamil areas and wipe out the traditional support for the main opposition bourgeois party - the United National Party. At the present time this party stands for peace. Its leader, Ranil Wickeramasinghe, when the UNP was last in power, was instrumental in getting the 2002 cease-fire to hold, allowing some respite to the minority Tamil population and to the Sri Lankan Army forces. He was under great pressure particularly from US imperialism, to bring the costly war to an end and continue to open up the Sri Lankan economy to further investment and exploitation by foreign capital.

It was his party, however, which was in power in the early '80s when the full-scale war was started. The UNP had got a landslide victory in 1977 with 140 votes to eight for the SLFP. In the north, the Tamil United Liberation Front won a clean sweep of all 18 seats, standing on the programme of a separate Tamil state. These two developments came in the wake of the betrayals of working and poor people by popular front governments of the capitalist SLFP with left parties, but the sharp attack by the UNP on the gains of the past, and its driving down of living standards, provoked an all-out public sector general strike in 1980. After it ended in defeat and mass sackings of trade union and party lefts, the government turned to pursue a civil war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

On 24 July 1983, the bodies of 13 soldiers killed by the Tigers were paraded on the streets of Colombo. Mobs were given military protection and government vehicles to move in. Up to 4,000 Tamil people were slaughtered in just a couple of days. More than 18,000 homes were attacked and damaged and more than 100 workplaces and 20 garment factories were destroyed. 150,000 lost their jobs and over 100,000 Tamils were made refugees. President Premadasa justified this tragedy saying the Sinhala people must be given respect but that anyway the pogroms against Tamils had been organised by the left parties!

Today the United National Party poses as the friend of the workers, of the Tamils and of all peace-loving citizens. They have decried the war but made few moves to organise real mass opposition against it. The nearest it came was at the time of the funeral of the murdered newspaper editor, Lasantha Wickeramatunge. They have not done well in the recent provincial elections.

Elections

The ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party has won decisively. In the East it was with the help of another LTTE renegade, Pillayan and his thugs. In the Ratnapura area and in the central Hill Country, where Tamils of a different origin from those of the North are the majority, Rajapkse was still able to win big votes. Corruption and intimidation are endemic in Sri Lanka's elections, but the promise of a swift end to the war and its drain on resources and emotions, won out. Sinhalese families with sons in the army, many as economic conscripts, longed for an end to the fighting. Every village in the South has been flying the white flags of mourning for the numerous soldiers lost in the dacades of fighting.

The United Socialist Party has been reluctant to stand in the recent elections which, in the circumstances are a farce and serve only to strengthen the Rajapakse warmongering clique. But the USP has a responsibility to voice the anguish of the Tamil-speaking people, to defend their rights and to campaign for united mass action to change society along socialist lines.

When the war is supposedly over, there will be no long-term solution under this government. The JVP and JHU chauvinists, who will never settle for any kind of devolution, may well come onto the streets to create a triumphal communal atmosphere. They and the government even may feel strong enough to carry out physical attacks on Tamils and political opponents alike.

The government may well go for snap elections in the Jaffna area to claim the war is over and that Tamil people can have some measure of choice over their representatives. They will aim to install compliant Tamil politicians. They will refuse any real element of self rule, especially if it means implementing the 'thirteenth amendment' (to an earlier cease-fire agreement) which would link the north and east as one entity. But after the bloody 'end' of the longest running conflict in Asia, the Tamil people, if consulted, will not now settle for integration into a unitary state.

Elections taking place in these conditions are a farce. The idea of the government is to move quickly to repeat the experience in the East where military victory was followed up fraudulent and violent elections to get a compliant local administration into power. There are said to be plans for the government to organise Sinhala settlers to move into the war-torn areas of the North in the way that Jewish settlers have been 'planted' in Palestine's West Bank, for example.

Whatever manoeuvres, strategies, emergency powers Mahinda Rajapakse has surrounded himself with, in the end, relief at the end of the war will give way to new anxieties - over the lack of a settlement to the national conflict but also to the crippling costs and conditions of life. The war has consumed vast resources – up to$5million a day. Before the civil war, in 1982, defence spending was just 0.5% of the country's GDP. Today it takes more than 5% – putting Sri Lanka in the top 20 biggest military spenders worldwide. The total has gone from 96bn rupees to 200bn in two years. The country's current account deficit has gone from 1.5bn to 3.6bn rupees. Prices of essential food and fuel have spiralled. The rupee in the wage packet has plummeted.

In his appeal for solidarity action on April 8, Secretary of the USP, Siritunga Jayasuriya, pointed out what the effects have been already of the global downturn: "More than 300,000 employees out of a total workforce of 6.1 million employed in the private sector have lost their jobs, with more than 50,000 being dismissed during the past three months. More than 50 companies and factories have been closed due to the present crisis situation and the Labour Ministry has done little to protect the employees who have lost their jobs.

The working people of Sri Lanka will resist paying the price for the crisis on top of the huge war burden. The Tamil people most direly affected by the war will want to see something in return for their huge sacrifices. The workers' movement and the socialist forces will be rebuilt to fight back. An end to war and a lasting peace can be achieved through a mass, united struggle of the working and poor of all communities – Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim – for a harmonious socialist society.

Clare Doyle, CWI

GAZA : THE NIGHTMARE CONTINUES

NEW 'PEACE TALKS' WILL NOT LEAD TO GENUINE PALESTINIAN STATE

Three months after Israel's war against Gaza that killed nearly 1,400 people, 314 of them children, and wounded thousands, conditions in the strip remain appalling and are worsening rapidly. The UN estimates that over 4,000 houses were destroyed by the Israeli Defence Force's (IDF) bloody assault and thousands more were badly damaged. Thousands are still huddling in tents.

Despite a pledge of $4.5 billion for reconstruction made at an international donors conference at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, last March, repair work to Gaza's war-shattered infrastructure has yet to begin.

The Israeli regime still enforces cruel sanctions, first imposed after Hamas won a majority in elections to the Palestinian Authority in 2006. This means at least 90% of people in Gaza suffer regular power cuts and the rest have no electricity at all. An estimated 100,000 people out of a population of 1.5 million only get running water once in every two or three days.

The previous Israeli government attacked Gaza to try to get re-elected in February's general election and also to try to reassert the Israeli army's military dominance, following its defeat in the 2006 war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But the government was replaced by a new right-wing coalition led by Binyamin Netanyahu and the Likud party. And whatever the IDF's short term military gains, the slaughter of Gazan men, women and children will not bring peace or security to the people of Israel.

Gaza faces starvation and remains a gigantic prison camp. Israel continues its military assaults despite the so-called ceasefire. This cruel oppression and injustice will inevitably lead to more conflict, in which the working class and poor, Palestinian but also Israeli Jewish, will suffer most.

Although Hamas was militarily weakened by the IDF onslaught, rival Palestinian organisation Fatah has not gained from this, as its leadership is seen as compliant to imperialism. However, Hamas has no alternative strategy that can advance the cause of the Palestinians.

A return to indiscriminate rocket attacks on Israel by Hamas and other forces, or renewed suicide bombings in Israel, would be counter-productive in the Palestinians' struggle for liberation.

The Palestinians clearly have a right to armed defence. This would be best conducted through democratically-organised Palestinian defence committees. Mass action, for example against the blockade, would help to push the Palestinian struggle forward and could win the support of Israeli Jewish workers in the process.

'Two states'?

Hopes that the election of US president Barack Obama will lead to a fundamental change were already undermined by his silence during the Gaza war.

The Obama administration now says it will push for a new round of peace talks, eventually leading to a "two state solution". But the right wing Netanyahu government does not recognise the right of Palestinians to statehood and continues to build more Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Under intense US and EU pressure, it is possible the Israeli government will be forced to engage in talks and it could make some secondary concessions. But this will not lead to the creation of a genuine and viable Palestinian state. Indeed, the Palestinians will be asked to make the real 'sacrifices', such as dropping the demand for East Jerusalem to become their capital and for the right of return of refugees, and will be asked to accept some Bantustan-style 'state'.

Under capitalism and imperialism, a genuine 'two state' solution is utopian.

The US as 'peace-broker' is currently involved in daily combat operations from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is also confronting the Iranian regime, causing huge instability and resentment throughout the Muslim and Arab world.

Every important gain made in the history of Palestinian struggle has been the result of active mobilisation of the mass of Palestinian people.

Also, in Israel, united class action would see the working class and poor oppose the national oppression carried out in their name, and lead to a struggle to overthrow the Israeli capitalist class, as part of a struggle to overthrow all the corrupt ruling elites of the Middle East.

The building of mass independent workers' organisations, in the territories, in Israel and across the Middle East, is urgently needed as a first step towards a socialist solution to end the misery endured by Palestinians.

It is these forces, alongside the youth and workers around the world who showed great solidarity with the plight of Palestinians during huge demonstrations against the Gaza war, which will lead the struggle for a real, lasting solution - democratic socialist states across the region, including a socialist Palestine and a socialist Israel.

Niall Mulholland, CWI

The great recession

Who now would dispute that world capitalism is facing its worse economic crisis since the 1930s?

Previous slumps, like 1974-75 and 1980-82, mainly affected the advanced capitalist countries, and overall growth in the world economy remained positive. Now, for the first time since 1945, there is a synchronised global downturn, with an absolute decline in world output (aggregate GDP) and trade. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is predicting a fall in global output of 2.7% in 2009, with a 4.3% fall in the OECD area (made up of 30 of the most developed economies). It projects a further fall of 0.1% in OECD area output during 2010 and a modest 2.3% growth in the global economy. However, it warns that there is a serious risk of continuing negative growth rates.

 

The US economy, according to the OECD, is likely to contract by 4% this year, Japan's by 6.6%, and the euro area of the European Union (EU) by 4%. It would not be surprising if the actual figures turn out to be even worse.

In recent years, world trade grew two or three times faster than global output. Since last year, however, the volume of world trade (worth around $13 trillion annually) has fallen sharply. The World Trade Organisation predicts a 9% fall in trade (by volume). However, the OECD predicts an even worse decline of 13%. (World trade grew by 8.5% in 2006 and 6% in 2007.)

Exports have been hit by a generalised, world-wide collapse of demand and the seizing up of export credit normally used to finance about 90% of the international shipping of goods. Major exporters have suffered falls of between 15% and 40% in their exports. China, for instance, relied in recent years on exports of consumer goods to the US and EU. As these exports have been cut back, China's manufacturers have cut their orders for producer goods (for example, machine tools, motors, and other equipment), hitting manufacturing exporters such as Japan and Germany and raw material exporters like Brazil.

At the various summits of the major capitalist states – G8, EU, G20, etc – the leaders have all declared themselves in favour of free trade and continued globalisation, warning of the dangers of protectionism. But according to the World Bank, since the November 2008 G20 meeting, 17 members of the group have taken a total of 47 trade-restricting steps.

Given the greatly increased integration of world trade and investment over recent years, there is unlikely to be any return to the virtual seizing up of trade that occurred in the 1930s. Depression-era protectionism was a very blunt instrument, with the US imposing nearly 900 import duties, which provoked widespread retaliation from its competitors. Today, tighter licensing requirements, import bans, anti-dumping measures and environmental protection rules are more likely to be used.

Obama has promised to revive world trade talks. But the Doha round negotiations were stalled even before the financial crisis, and finally broke down in July last year. Now, the US is itself adopting protectionist measures. For instance, Obama's Keynesian stimulus package includes a 'Buy American' clause that forbids spending on public works "unless all of the iron, steel, and manufactured goods used in the project are produced in the US." An amendment in the Senate to remove this clause was defeated 65-31 (no Democrat voted for its removal). It was softened by an additional clause that called for the Buy American clause to be implemented in ways that are compatible with WTO rules. But this is far from ruling out protectionist measures.

"That clause sends a terrible message to our trading partners", comments Edward Glaeser. "We are embracing an industrial policy that encourages other countries to bolster their own domestic industries and shut out foreign producers". (International Herald Tribune, 7 March) The US's NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico, also fear that the Obama administration will use labour and environmental protection rules to exclude some of their exports from the US.

Neither free trade nor protectionism will provide an easy way out for capitalism. Sheltered by protectionist measures, big corporations will raise their prices, squeeze wages, increase their profits, and postpone investment in new technology.

The global downturn was triggered by the financial crisis. In turn, the sharp fall in production and trade, and the world-wide surge in unemployment, has exacerbated the financial crisis. Governments have injected trillions in order to bail out the banks and other financial institutions. In contrast to 1929-30, they have prevented a catastrophic collapse of the core banking system and the financial infrastructure. One estimate puts the total cost of the US bank bailout (cash injections together with loan guarantees) to be a staggering £11.6 trillion. (Observer, 29 March)

Yet the crisis is far from over. As the downturn deepens, banks are being hit by defaults in prime loans, commercial property mortgages, credit card debt, student loans, etc. The IMF has now released an updated estimate of losses for the world financial system. Total losses are now expected to be a phenomenal $4.1 trillion. Last October, US losses on loans and securities were estimated at $1.4 trillion; they are now expected to be $2.7 trillion. The IMF expects losses of $1.2 trillion in Europe and $150 billion in Japan.

Most of the US losses arise from securitised loans linked to sub-prime housing loans. The losses of European banks, especially in Sweden, Austria and Belgium, are linked to loans to East European countries (like Hungary, Estonia, Romania, etc), formerly referred to as 'emerging markets'. Capital flows to these economies have plummeted, throwing Eastern Europe into crisis – with a major knock-on effect on Western European banks. East European governments are among those in the queue for IMF loans to avert collapse.

After the London G20 summit in early April, it was announced that the IMF and World Bank would inject $1.1 trillion into the world economy through loans to governments. However, the New York Times comments: "Some of the money has yet to be pledged, some is double counted and some would be counted as a 'synthetic currency' [special drawing rights] that is not actually real money". (How Much is the $1.1 Trillion in Aid from the G20 Really Worth? 9 April)

Around $500 billion of the $1.1 trillion is supposed to be direct funding of the IMF by major contributors, like the EU, Japan, and the US. So far, less than half has been forthcoming, and the US contribution depends on Congressional approval. The $250 billion of trade credits is not all new money; much of it will simply be rolled over from previous trade loans that have been repaid. The $250 billion of special drawing rights (credit against which governments can borrow) will be allocated to IMF members, and it is then up to them to extend loans to the poorest countries.

Obama recently said he saw "glimmers of hope" for the US economy. Capitalist leaders everywhere are desperately searching for the 'green shoots' of recovery. But this is premature. The rate of decline has slowed. This undoubtedly reflects the massive sums used by governments to bail out the banks and finance huge stimulus packages. Central banks in the US, Japan and Britain have reduced interest rates to near zero and resorted to 'quantitative easing', effectively printing money.

But this is not the same as a recovery. A sustainable recovery will be held back by several things that will not be easily overcome. There is massive overcapacity in the world economy, and this may well give rise to deflation, a general decline in the prices of manufactured goods (which will depress investment). There is a huge overhang of debt. Households, businesses and governments will all be forced to try to reduce their debt burden in the coming years.

Through the bailouts, for instance, a mountain of debt has been transferred from the banks to governments. Keynesian-type deficit spending is also increasing government debt. The OECD-wide fiscal deficit will reach about 8.7% of GDP next year (11.9% in the US). Protectionism will impede the revival of world trade. This is not a normal cyclical recession. It is likely to be much longer than previous post-1945 recessions, with a slow recovery. Some commentators are calling it the 'Great Recession' and, although not likely to be on the scale of the 1930s, it will have depression-like features.

The burden of the crisis inevitably falls on workers, poor labourers and small farmers. Unemployment means poverty and suffering for many millions. G7 unemployment is projected to rise to 37 million by the end of this year (and official figures always underestimate the true numbers). According to the ILO there were 190 million unemployed world-wide in 2008, and another 50 million will join their ranks this year. Globalisation, it was claimed, was reducing poverty, but the ILO now admits that "poverty reduction is unravelling". There are 1.4 billion people living in extreme poverty, on less than $1.25 a day.

Lynn Walsh, CWI

May 2009

PERALIHAN KUASA UNTUK MENYELAMATKAN KERUNTUHAN UMNO/BN

Perdana Menteri Malaysia yang ke-enam, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, mengambilalih tampuk kepimpinan kerajaan pada 3hb. April daripada Abdullah Ahmad Badawi selepas Najib dilantik Presiden UMNO. Peralihan kuasa ini terpaksa dilangsungkan untuk menstabilkan krisis dalaman UMNO yang semakin menular. Ramai ahli UMNO juga beranggapan bahawa proses ini perlu untuk menyelamatkan UMNO dan BN yang semakin lemah semenjak kekalahan yang mengaibkan dalam Pilihanraya yang ke-12.

Namun demikian, peralihan kuasa tersebut tidak memberangsangkan ramai di kalangan rakyat biasa yang semakin muak dengan politik perkauman dan kronisma yang hanya memanfaatkan ahli-ahli politik BN dan golongan kaya-raya kapitalis. Ramai penganalisa politik beranggapan bahawa senario ini boleh membawa kepada kejatuhan sekaligus kuasa UMNO/BN yang telah mendominasikan politik negara semenjak merdeka, jika sokongan rakyat kepada parti-parti pembangkang di bawah Pakatan Rakyat semakin meningkat dan ekonomi negara yang tidak tentu pada masa kini terus menerus merosot.

5 TAHUN BERSAMA PAK LAH

Ketika Pak Lah mengambilalih tampuk kepimpinan kerajaan daripada Mahathir Mohamad pada tahun 2003, Pak Lah bertekad untuk membawa perubahan untuk mempertahankan demokrasi, menghapuskan gejala rasuah dan membentuk pemerintahan yang telus dan bertanggungjawab. Pak Lah melaung-laungkan moto "Kerja dengan saya dan bukan untuk saya" untuk menyatakan hasrat dan keseriusan beliau. Selepas 20 tahun pemerintahan mutlak dan serangan neo-liberal di bawah Mahathir, janji-jani Pak Lah kearah perubahan, telah memberikan harapan tinggi kepada rakyat biasa. Ini seterusnya telah diterjemahkan sebagai sokongan padu kepada agenda perubahan Pak Lah apabila rakyat memberikan kemenangan terbesar yang mencipta sejarah untuk BN dalam Pilihanraya yang ke-11 pada tahun 2004.

Tetapi sokongan padu rakyat kepada kerajaan Pak Lah telah bertukar menjadi kekecewaan dan kemarahaan apabila warga pekerja dan rakyat miskin bersama dengan golongan pertengahan tidak dapat melihat banyak perubahan yang dijanjikan kepada mereka, walaupun Pak Lah memberikan sedikit ruang kebebasan berbanding dengan Mahathir.

Pak Lah yang dianggap sebagai seorang yang halim dan 'bersih', gagal mahupun untuk membersihkan jentera-jentera kerajaan seperti Badan Kehakiman dan Polis yang terbelenggu dengan gejala rasuah. Beliau langsung tidak berusaha untuk berkonfrontasi dengan sistem kapitalisma yang berlandaskan kepada keuntungan maksima, untuk meningkatkan taraf kehidupan warga pekerja dan golongan miskin. Tetapi, pada masa yang sama, telah bersongkol dengan kroni dan kapitalis kaya raya untuk memuaskan nafsu keuntungan mereka. Manakala, kepimpinan beliau yang pro-kapitalis terpaksa tunduk kepada tuntutan-tuntutan pengikut-pengikut setia UMNO dan kerajaan untuk terus menerus menuruti lumrah politik naungan yang telah diamalkan oleh pemimpin-pemimpin sebelumnya. Ini mengakibatkan warga pekerja dan rakyat miskin, yang tertindas di bawah pemerintahan mutlak Mahathir, tidak puas hati apabila Pak Lah tidak berdaya untuk mencabar 'Mahathirisma'. Ini meremukkan harapan warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa yang menuntut perubahan.

Kekecewaan dan kemarahan rakyat biasa terhadap keangkuhan UMNO dan BN semakin meningkat apabila isu-isu perkauman tertentu dipinggirkan dan jurang kekayaan di antara golongan miskin dan kaya semakin melebar. Ramai telah menyedari bahawa kekuasaan mutlak UMNO/BN telah mengakibatkan hak dan keperluan warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa diabaikan dengan sewenang-wenangnya. Justeru itu mereka membuat keputusan untuk memberikan 'pengajaran' yang sewajarnya kepada UMNO/BN dalam Pilihanraya yang ke-12. Perasaan kemarahan tersebut menular kepada kebanyakan rakyat biasa tanpa mengira kaum dan agama, terutamanya di Semenanjung Malaysia. Perasaan ini telah diterjemahkan sebagai undi bantahan terhadap UMNO dan BN yang membawa kepada tamparan hebat 'tsunami politik' pada 8hb. Mac 2008 yang merupakan kekalahan paling teruk kepada BN dalam jangkamasa 50 tahun. BN hilang majoriti dua pertiga dan kalah kepada Pakatan di lima negeri.

Semenjak kekalahan parah tersebut, pemimpin-pemimpin UMNO amat risau tentang keadaan parti yang semakin terumbang-ambing akibat pukulan 'tsunami politik'. Mereka tahu, jika keadaan ini berterusan, ianya boleh membawa kepada kekalahan sekaligus keseluruhan kuasa kerajaan dalam Pilihanraya yang ke-13. Dengan hasrat untuk melindungi kronisma dan budaya naungan yang telah dikecapi selama ini, mereka beranggapan UMNO perlu diperbaharuhi dengan "kepimpinan yang kuat". Akibatnya, Pak Lah telah dijadikan 'kambing hitam' untuk menutup 'pekung di dada'. Walaupun, Pak Lah mencuba sedaya upaya untuk mempertahankan tampuk kepimpinannya yang telah dicemari, beliau akhirnya terpaksa sungkur kepada desakan bertuli-tuli dalam UMNO.

Mahathir juga memainkan peranan dalam menjatuhkan Pak Lah dengan menuduh polisi-polisi Pak Lah yang menurut beliau telah meruntuhkan UMNO. Tetapi, pada hakikatnya, ketika pemerintahan Mahathirlah UMNO terjunam ke dalam kancah politik wang dan kronisma, dan ianya berkembang menjadi barah (kanser) yang tidak dapat dibendung oleh Pak Lah.

Manakala, Najib dianggap sebagai rakan rapat Mahathir dan kini Mahathir pula berjanji untuk membantu Najib untuk mengembalikan zaman kegemilangan UMNO semula. Ini bermakna, hasrat bersama mereka adalah untuk memperkukuhkan semula 'Mahathirisma' untuk memanfaatkan kroni dan golongan kapitalis.

NAJIB DENGAN IMEJ TERCEMAR

Bahkan, sebelum mengambilalih kuasa lagi, Najib telah dituduh bertubi-tubi dengan berbagai tuduhan, yang di antaranya ialah beliau dikaitkan dengan pembunuhan model Mongolia dan penyalahgunaan kuasa dan rasuah ketika memangku Kementerian Pertahanan. Ramai juga percaya bahawa Najib telah bersongkol bersama untuk menjayakan 'rampasan kuasa' di negeri Perak. Walaupun, Najib menafikan semua tuduhan tersebut, tetapi beliau gagal untuk membetulkan persepsi negatif masyarakat terhadap beliau yang semakin menebal. Malahan, ini merupakan kali pertama, di mana Perdana Menteri Malaysia mempunyai reputasi yang paling rendah sebaik sahaja mengambilalih tampuk kepimpinan kerajaan.

Namun begitu, untuk meningkatkan kepercayaan dan kredibiliti, sejurus selepas mengambil tampuk kepimpinan, Najib dalam ucaptamanya melancarkan moto "Satu Malaysia, Rakyat diDahulukan, Prestasi DiUtamakan". Dengan sokongan rakyat yang semakin susut, Najib sedar beliau perlu melaksanakan sesuatu dengan segera untuk meningkatkan persepsi positif rakyat terhadap beliau. Beliau dengan segera membebaskan 13 tahanan ISA and menggugurkan pengharaman dua akhbar Pembangkang. Cubaan sedemikian untuk mempengaruhi rakyat dengan retorik dan slogan untuk memperolehi manfaat politik, bukanlah perkara baru dalam politik Malaysia. Ketika Mahathir dan Pak Lah mengambilalih kuasa, mereka juga mementaskan slogan dan retorik perubahan untuk memukau rakyat. Memandangkan rakyat sudah jelak dengan retorik dan slogan kosong yang tidak memanfaatkan mereka ketika era Mahathir dan Pak Lah, cubaan Najib dengan reputasi yang rendah, tidak mendapat sambutan daripada rakyat biasa.

UMNO/BN SEMAKIN LEMAH

Dengan peralihan kuasa tersebut, UMNO dengan kepimpinan baru berharapan tinggi untuk mengembalikan zaman kegemilangan BN ketika ianya memerintah secara mutlak dengan sokongan padu rakyat. Tetapi, harapan ini remuk apabila BN tidak berupaya untuk memenangi pilihanraya kecil di Bukit Gantang dan Bukit Selambau yang dianggap sebagai pungutan suara (referendum) terhadap kepimpinan Najib. Ini menandakan bahawa perlantikan Najib sebagai Perdana Menteri tidak memberi kesan besar kepada rakyat biasa sebagaimana ketika Pak Lah mengambilalih kuasa daripada Mahathir.

Ramai penganalisa politik menyangka bahawa UMNO/BN akan melangkah ke zaman kehancuran jika tidak berniat untuk berubah-'ubah atau hancur'– dengan persekitaran politik baru semenjak pilihanraya yang ke-12 yang telah memperkasakan pembangkang dan membuka persepsi rakyat kepada politik baru.

Tetapi, seperti kata seorang penganalisa politik, "Selagi kerajaan memberikan habuan untuk menjaga kepentingan ahli-ahli UMNO, gejala politik wang dan rasuah dalam parti tidak akan berakhir. Budaya inilah yang sedang meracuni UMNO". Mampukah Najib mengoncang kapal yang dikemudinya untuk menukar wajah yang telah tercemar? Mengikut penganalisa politik tersebut, " Siapa dalam UMNO berani menenggelamkan kapal yang telah melimpahkan keuntungan walaupun ianya tercemar? Hakikatnya, jika Najib tidak membersihkan partinya daripada gejala-gejala tersebut, maka jurang di antara UMNO dan rakyat akan semakin membesar".

Manakala, jika UMNO/BN yang tercemar dan lemah tidak dapat diperbaharuhi, seorang ahli politik veteran menasihatkan Najib " Lakukan seperti ayah kamu. Jika BN tidak berguna lagi, maka kamu perlu lupuskannya sahaja". Beliau merujuk kepada keputusan ayah Najib, Abdul Razak Hussein, yang memperbaharuhi Perikatan dengan Barisan Nasional pada tahun 1973 dengan mempengaruhi parti-parti pembangkang seperti PAS, GERAKAN dan PPP untuk menyertainya, dengan tujuan mempopularkan reputasi parti pemerintah di kalangan rakyat biasa. Pada masa tersebut, cubaan Razak tersebut adalah semata-mata untuk memperolehi sokongan bukan-Melayu yang menyokong parti berhaluan kiri dan memperolehi sokongan orang Melayu di luar bandar yang menyokong Parti Islam.

Semenjak Pilihanraya tahun lalu, parti-parti pembangkang dengan kepercayaan dan pendekatan politik yang berbeza, telah bersatu di bawah Pakatan Rakyat , dengan kepimpinan Anwar Ibrahim. Dengan peningkatan kepopularan Anwar di kalangan rakyat dan pertambahan sokongan daripada kapitalis-kapitalis antarabangsa, besar kemungkinan lebih ramai daripada UMNO/BN akan menyertai Pakatan jika UMNO/BN semakin lemah dan tercemar.

Manakala, Najib dan sekutunya tidak akan berdiam diri dan akan mencuba sebarang jalan untuk memecah belahkan Pakatan untuk mengkuatkan BN. Misalnya, jika konflik besar tercetus di kalangan parti pembangkang, atas nama memperkasakan Ketuanan Melayu atau Ketuanan Islam, PAS mungkin akan menyertai BN, seperti yang telah dinyatakan oleh beberapa pemimpin PAS baru-baru ini.

Tetapi, pada peringkat ini, UMNO/BN telah tepu dengan kapitalisma kroni, berbanding dengan sifat-sifatnya pada 1970an. Jika BN distrukturkan semula, ini bermakna, kapitalisma kroni yang merupakan daya tarikan, akan berkecai. Pemimpin-pemimpin dan ahli-ahli UMNO yang berlandaskan kepada kuasa dan kemewahan tidak akan membenarkan pertalian yang memanfaatkan kehendak keperibadian mereka hilang begitu sahaja.

KAPITALISMA KRONI

UMNO pada masa kini hanyalah satu mesin naungan (patronage) dan kita boleh menjejaki kemunculan budaya ini semenjak pelancaran Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB) pada tahun 1971 oleh Tun Abdul Razak, Perdana Menteri Malaysia yang ke-dua. Pada mulanya, DEB bertujuan untuk menghapuskan kemiskinan di kalangan rakyat Melayu di luar Bandar. Tetapi, kemudiannya UMNO telah mula menggunakannya sebagai alat untuk mempertahankan sokongan kaum Melayu terhadap UMNO- "habuan untuk mendapatkan sokongan".

Kapitalisma kroni berkembang dan mencapai sifat sepenuhnya ketika era Mahathir, di antara tahun 1981 dan 2003. Ketika pemerintahan Mahathir, pembentukan 'parti-kerajaan' diilhamkan melalui polisi-polisi "Pengkoperatan Malaysia". Pada tahun 1980an, polisi-polisi ini membawa kepada pembangunan pesat industri-industri berat dan perlaksanaan projek-projek penswastaan perkhidmatan-perkhidmatan awam secara meluas. Pada masa yang sama, Mahathir menggunakan DEB untuk membangunkan dan memperkasakan kedudukan kapitalis-kapitalis Melayu dan ini secara tidak langsung telah memperkukuhkan politik naungan di kalangan ahli-ahli UMNO. Manakala jalinan intim dengan peniaga-peniaga kaya dan kapitalis dibentuk dan ini membolehkan mereka meluaskan aktiviti perniagaan mereka dalam syarikat-syarikat bumiputera dengan menikmati habuan dan kelonggaran yang dijanjikan dalam DEB. Satu statistik menunjukkan bahawa UMNO dan individu-individu tertentu yang berhubungkait dengan UMNO menjadi pengarah kepada lebih daripada 100 syarikat dengat nilai aset berjumlah RM4 billion sehingga tahun 1990.

Ketika ini, bagi kebanyakan orang, UMNO hanyalah pasport untuk pengumpulan kekayaan peribadi dan untuk memperolehi kedudukan yang membuahkan kemewahan. Ini secara tidak langsung telah menjunamkan UMNO ke dalam politik wang, budaya rasuah dan seterusnya mengkukuhkan politik naungan. Manakala parti-parti komponen BN yang lain seperti MCA, MIC dan lain-lain pula telah mempergunakan politik naungan UMNO sebagai model untuk mempertahankan sokongan kaum masing-masing. Dengan perkataan lain, 'pecah dan perintah' mengikut kaum untuk mempertahankan kuasa.

SOKONGAN MENINGKAT UNTUK PAKATAN RAKYAT

Manakala, semakin ramai warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa pelbagai kaum menyedari bahawa kroni-kroni UMNO/BN terus menerus mengaut keuntungan yang dijanakan oleh "kuasa buruh" kelas pekerja. Disebabkan oleh tindakan-tindakan parti-parti BN yang berpihak kepada kerakusan keuntungan maksima golongan kapitalis, kelas pekerja dan golongan miskin dipinggirkan daripada memperolehi manfaat-manfaat yang sewajarnya daripada kekayaan melimpah dan pembangunan pesat negara. Justeru itu, ramai membuat kesimpulan bahawa mereka perlu merubah keadaan ini. Oleh kerana tiada parti massa berlandaskan kelas pekerja, mereka menaruh harapan dengan menyokong Pakatan Rakyat.

Berdasarkan kepada keputusan-keputusan pilihanraya-pilihanraya kecil semenjak Pilihanraya yang ke-12, Pakatan di bawah kepimpinan Anwar Ibrahim telah meningkatkan sokongannya, terutamanya di Semenanjung Malaysia. Manakala pilihanraya kecil di Batang-Ai (Sarawak) yang dimenangi oleh BN menunjukkan BN masih mempunyai kelebihan dari segi jentera pilihanraya dan kewangan dalam politik di Sabah dan Sarawak. Tetapi, perasaan tidak puas hati di kalangan rakyat biasa di negeri-negeri ini terhadap polisi-polisi kerajaan BN semakin meningkat dan ini mungkin diterjemahkan sebagai sokongan kepada Pakatan jika perubahaan-perubahaan yang dijanjikan oleh BN di negeri-negeri ini tidak dilaksanakan.

Manakala, Pakatan juga akan mempergunakan konflik dalaman UMNO di antara kem Najib dan kem Abdullah untuk memperkukuhkan kedudukannya. Peningkatan penyingkiran pemimpin-pemimpin pro-Abdullah daripada kepimpinan parti boleh menaikkan kemarahan di kalangan penyokong-penyokong setia Abdullah. Jika konflik ini mencapai tahap yang genting, ini akan memungkinkan lebih ramai penyokong Abdullah keluar parti untuk menyertai Pakatan.

EKONOMI TERUMBANG-AMBING

Namun demikian, ramai lagi yang tidak yakin dengan politik Pakatan Rakyat yang jelas merestui agenda kapitalisma. Manakala ramai yang masih lagi di 'atas pagar' lebih prihatin tentang ekonomi dan taraf kehidupan mereka daripada politik yang dicanangkan oleh parti-parti politik tersebut. Oleh yang demikian, pada peringkat ini masa depan pemerintahan UMNO/BN amat bergantung kepada prestasi ekonomi negara.

Seorang ahli ekonomi United Overseas Bank berkata, " Ekonomi Asia masih belum sampai ke tahap terburuk… hanya menunggu masa sahaja kerana kita masih di peringkat awalan krisis". Masa depan ekonomi di setiap pelusuk dunia nampak muram dan tidak tentu. Mahupun pada peringkat awalan ini, di Malaysia , ramai pekerja dan juga golongan kelas pertengahan telah merasai kesan krisis ekonomi yang sedang melanda dunia. Ketika ini hampir 30,000 pekerjaan telah hilang, terutama di sektor elektronik dan pembuatan, sejak bulan Januari. Malahan, kelab kapitalis, Gabungan Majikan-majikan Malaysia menjangkakan pada akhir tahun ini lebih 400,000 pekerja akan kehilangan pekerjaan. Setakat ini ekspot telah jatuh sebanyak 30% di bulan Januari disebabkan kejatuhan permintaan daripada Amerika, Eropah, China, Jepun dan Singapura. Adalah dijangkakan ekonomi negara akan menguncup sebanyak 2.5% pada suku pertama dan 4% di suku kedua dan ketiga.

Agenda perubahan Najib bersama "pasukan untuk perubahan" yang dipilih oleh beliau boleh tercemar akibat keadaan ekonomi yang tidak menentu. Ekonomi Malaysia yang berlandaskan kepada ekspot amat terdedah kepada perubahan ekonomi dunia dan kerajaan hampir tiada kuasa kawalan dalam hal ini. Tetapi, jika ekonomi semakin teruk, untuk menyelamatkan kapitalis-kapitalis tempatan yang mempunyai hubungan intim dengan UMNO/BN, Najib mungkin akan terdesak untuk memperkenalkan tindakan-tindakan pelindung sepertimana dilaksanakan oleh Mahathir ketika krisis kewangan 1997.

Dalam keadaan ekonomi yang semakin merosot yang akan memberi kesan besar kepada warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa, dengan sokongan yang semakin menyusut di kalangan kelas pekerja dan kelas pertengahan dan peningkatan konflik di dalam UMNO, Pakatan Rakyat dengan sokongan kapitalis-kapitalis tempatan dan antarabangsa, boleh mengambil peluang untuk menubuhkan kerajaan.

Walaubagaimanapun, BN yang telah memerintah secara mutlak selama 50 tahun dan membina gerombolan kapitalis kroni untuk terus berkuasa, tidak akan mengalah dengan mudah. Pada masa yang sama, ramai menjangkakan, Najib akan mempergunakan krisis ekonomi dan konflik dalaman UMNO sebagai alasan untuk kembali kepada penindasan ala-Mahathir. Ini bermakna BN akan mempergunakan setiap kemungkinan untuk mempertahankan kuasanya, termasuk mencemarkan dan menindas pemimpin-pemimpin Pakatan dan rakyat yang menentang. Dalam keadaan terdesak dan tertekan, ini mungkin boleh mencetuskan gerakan reformasi, yang mana mungkin lebih besar daripada tahun 1998.

KAPITALISMA DALAM KRISIS

Sistem kapitalis telah dilindungi dan dibangunkan oleh UMNO/BN semenjak merdeka dan mencapai satu tahap yang tinggi ketika era Mahathir. Ramai anak muda, pekerja, petani, pelajar dan yang lain terutamanya di Semenanjung, yang tertindas di bawah sistem kapitalis, telah mencapai kesimpulan bahawa UMNO/BN sudah terjerumus dalam kancah kapitalisma untuk kemewahan dan keuntungan peribadi dan kroni.

Ini menunjukkan sistem kapitalis yang dipelopori oleh kerajaan UMNO/BN bermatlamatkan semata-mata untuk membantu kapitalis-kapitalis nasional dan antarabangsa untuk memaksimakan keuntungan. Pada masa yang sama, mereka bertindak sebagai tali barut untuk memenuhi nafsu kuasa dan kemewahan pemimpin-pemimpin dan ahli-ahli UMNO/BN. Berdasarkan kepada sifat-sifat sedemikian, UMNO/BN tidak akan melindungi dan memenuhi hak-hak dan keperluan-keperluan asas warga pekerja, anak muda dan rakyat yang tertindas. Pak Lah yang dianggap sebagai seorang halim dan 'bersih' gagal untuk melaksanakan perubahan yang dijanjikan ketika peralihan kuasa, kerana Pak Lah tidak berdaya untuk berkonfrantasi dan mencabar sistem kapitalisma.

Walaupun Pakatan melaungkan perubahan dan hak demokrasi, tetapi mereka tidak berniat untuk mencabar sistem kapitalisma. Hakikatnya, Anwar, ketika bersama UMNO, adalah penganut neo-liberalisma dan sentiasa menyokong sistem pasaran bebas.
Mereka hanya mencadangkan agar sistem pasaran bebas kapitalisma ditukar wajah dengan mengurangkan rasuah dan meningkatkan ketelusan dalam pentadbiran negara. Ini, pada hakikatnya, adalah tuntutan kapitalis-kapitalis antarabangsa untuk mengondol peluang-peluang perniagaan dan pelaburan dan sumber-sumber alam daripada dominasi kapitalis tempatan. Manakala kapitalis tempatan pula mempergunakan kapitalisma kroni yang dipelopori oleh UMNO/BN untuk melindungi nafsu keuntungan mereka daripada digondol oleh syarikat-syarikat multinasional. Pendek kata, kedua-dua kapitalis antarabangsa dan tempatan bermatlamatkan keuntungan maksima dan bukannya untuk memenuhi hak dan keperluan asas warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa.

Kerajaan Pakatan di negeri-negeri Selangor dan Pulau Pinang tidak dapat berbuat apa-apa apabila syarikat-syarikat multinational membuang para pekerja. Mereka tidak membantah polisi-polisi buruh murah, dan ,undang-undang buruh dan kesatuan yang menindas warga pekerja. Malahan, mereka tiada program yang jelas untuk menjaga dan melindungi hak kelas pekerja dan rakyat biasa jika Pakatan membentuk kerajaan persekutuan.

Di bawah sistem kapitalisma, hak-hak demokratik atau perubahan tertentu boleh dimenangi atas desakan gerakan massa. Jika Pakatan membentuk kerajaan, ada kemungkinan perubahan-perubahan dan hak demokratik tertentu dilaksanakan atas desakan warga pekerja dan rakyat biasa yang menuntut perubahan.

Tetapi, ekonomi Malaysia yang berlandaskan kepada ekspot bergantung kepada kapitalisma global, yang bermakna Malaysia terpaksa tunduk kepada keperluan-keperluan kapitalisma global. Dalam keadaan sedemikian, kapitalis-kapitalis antarabangsa selalunya lebih berkuasa daripada kerajaan itu sendiri. Sebab itu, dalam kebanyakan keadaan kerajaan terpaksa tunduk kepada permintaan-permintaan dan keperluan-keperluan multinasional untuk memaksimakan keuntungan. Sebab itu, kita ada polisi-polisi buruh murah, tiada gaji minima, tiada hak berkesatuan dan lain-lain yang menekan taraf kehidupan kelas pekerja dan rakyat miskin.

Akibatnya, tidak kira macam mana ikhlas kerajaan tersebut atau macam mana bersih pemimpin-pemimpin, jika mereka pro-kapitalisma, maka mereka terpaksa tunduk kepada permintaan-permintaan sistem tersebut. Ini semata-mata untuk memujuk kapitalis-kapitalis untuk menjalankan aktiviti-aktiviti perniagaan dan pelaburan. Dalam kes sebegini, hak-hak demokratik tertentu yang diperolehi pada suatu peringkat masa boleh diambil balik jika iannya tidak selaras dengan sistem keuntungan kapitalisma. Oleh itu, perjuangan untuk hak-hak demokrasi mesti dilaksanakan bersama dengan perjuangan terhadap kekejaman sistem kapitalisma.

SOSIALISMA UNTUK MASA DEPAN KITA

Kapitalisma di dunia sedang menghadapi krisis paling teruk dalam sejarahnya. Tetapi setiap kali krisis kapitalisma, kelas pekerja dan rakyat miskinlah yang terpaksa menanggung beban krisis akibat kerakusan keuntungan kapitalis-kapitalis. Dengan agenda pro-kapitalis, BN dan Pakatan tidak mewakili aspirasi dan kehendak kelas pekerja dan mereka tidak mempunyai penyelesaian kepada krisis ekonomi dan kehendak warga pekerja selain menyelamatkan pasaran bebas kapitalisma dengan agenda perubahan mereka.

Sistem kapitalis tidak menawarkan masa depan untuk kelas pekerja, anak muda, rakyat miskin dan yang lain yang tertindas di bawah sistem ini. Sistem ini juga memusnahkan alam persekitaran kita. Sebagai alternatif kita perlu membina satu masyarakat sosialis yang mengutamakan keperluan-keperluan asas masyarakat di negara kita dan juga di dunia melalui satu perancangan yang demokratik.

Oleh itu, selain berjuang untuk hak-hak demokratik, kelas pekerja dan rakyat miskin, dengan sokongan petani, golongan kelas pertengahan dan pelajar, mempunyai tugas penting untuk membina satu parti massa yang dengan jelas menentang sifat-sifat pemusnah sistem kapitalis dan pada masa yang sama meletakkan program sosialis sebagai alternatif. Ini adalah masa untuk membina alternatif ini, alternatif kelas pekerja untuk masa depan kita dan sejagat.

 

SWINE FLU: THE REAL ISSUES BEHIND THE HEADLINES

New health threats like swine flu add to the urgent need for public ownership of the major pharmaceutical companies.

MEXICO CITY, a vast, vibrant city of 20 million people, became quiet as schools closed, workers stayed at home and gatherings were cancelled. This was the impact of swine flu, mainly affecting Mexico, but also spreading into 20 other countries.

Fears of a deadly pandemic, whipped up by the media, have lessened as confirmed illnesses and deaths remain low: 26 deaths internationally and 1,024 people infected. 'Normal' flu strains cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year, so this new virus, A(H1N1), is less aggressive so far.

Given this background, some of the actions taken against swine flu seem surreal, such as patrol cars bellowing: "Disperse! It is dangerous to gather in groups" through loud-hailers at people on the streets of Mexico city, flights to Mexico being cancelled, and 350 hotel guests and staff being forcibly quarantined for seven days in Hong Kong.

In Egypt, security forces have been brutally suppressing protests of pig farmers after the government ordered the slaughter of all 300,000 pigs in the country. No clear scientific justification has yet been provided for many of these measures. The action in Egypt could be for motives other than the flu virus, under cover of it.

But setting aside suspect actions, over-reactions and sensationalist reporting, the fact remains that not enough is known about this new virus; it could yet turn out to be a major health hazard in the short or medium term. If it doesn't, sooner or later other flu variants are likely to arise that can pose new risks to human health, especially as the profit-hungry giant agribusiness companies keep livestock in conditions that increase the chance of this happening.

A similar flu virus emerged in the US over ten years ago that has become endemic on pig farms across North America and has been evolving rapidly. So a potential threat has existed for years and some scientists have issued strong warnings about it, but research into it and prevention measures have been disgracefully insufficient.

In 1918, up to 100 million people died in just 18 months from a global pandemic caused by a H1N1 type flu virus. To stop a repeat of such horror, more research is urgently needed into the origin of each type of virus, prevention measures, and into vaccines against them. Also, new, more effective treatments need to be developed and are essential, as viruses like A(H1N1) could quickly evolve to be resistant to all existing treatments.

But governments put much higher sums of money into military expenditure than medical research, and the multinational pharmaceutical companies have shareholders' profit as their main motive and not people's health. The medicines they do develop can't be afforded by most people in the poorer countries of the world, who are the most vulnerable to diseases; there are still nearly one million deaths each year from malaria (which is easily preventable through the distribution of mosquito nets).

New health threats like swine flu add to the urgent need for public ownership of the major pharmaceutical companies. And to the need for socialist governments that, through democratic public ownership, can use the vast resources of these companies and build them up further, to rapidly research and develop disease prevention measures and new treatments for the benefit of everyone.

Judy Beishon, CWI

2009 CWI May Day Statement

WORLD CAPITALISM IN CRISIS

We will not pay for the failure of the profit system!

Get organized - Resist! For fighting unions and mass workers' parties!

For international solidarity and socialism!

The Committee for a Workers' International (CWI) sends warm May Day greetings to workers, youth and the oppressed everywhere. Socialists, trade unionists and other activists celebrate May Day against the background of the worst crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. Following the near meltdown of the financial markets, the economic tsunami is now hitting the 'real economy'. The global economy is expected to decline by at least 1.3% in 2009. The biggest economies are shrinking dramatically, with Britain's to fall by over 4% this year and Japan's by over 6%. In the US, unemployment and house repossessions continue to climb steadily. Germany faces a huge 100bn euros loss in 2009, as its economy shrinks by 6%.

No part of the world can escape the deluge. Twenty years after the collapse of Stalinism and the illusions engendered in capitalism, the market economy has failed spectacularly in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, cruelly throwing millions into poverty overnight.

In Asia, Africa and Latin America already barbarous 'living' conditions are made even worse, as the effects of the world economic recession hits the poorest parts of the globe. Even before the onset of the recession, at least 80% of humanity lived on less than $10 a day and 25,000 children die due to poverty, every day. Just look at the situation in 'oil-rich' Nigeria, which has the largest population on the African continent. The UN reported that in 1996 the poverty rate in Nigeria was 46%, but that by February 2009 it had sky-rocketed to 76 %. The Nigerian government's Bureau of Statistics states that 40 million Nigerians are unemployed, which is a 65% unemployment rate among employable Nigerians.

These sorts of grotesque figures will increase as the already meagre 'aid' from the West is squeezed further by the economic downturn and as the bosses try to offload the crisis of their system onto the poorest people. The IMF is busy enforcing 'austerity packages' - meaning huge social spending cuts - from Iceland and the Baltic states to Pakistan and sub-Saharan Africa. The profit-led system means endemic poverty, joblessness, environmental destruction, wars, and the spread of preventable diseases. Even big sections of the middle classes face sackings and plummeting living standards.

The working class and poor of the world are being made to pay for the catastrophic breakdown of the capitalist system. Huge government bail-outs have "socialized the costs" while "privatizing the profits". Many millions of workers face severe social welfare cuts, mass unemployment, lower wages, higher taxes and house repossessions. Young people, particularly school leavers, are amongst the hardest by the crisis, with youth unemployment already standing at nearly 24% in Australia.

The global crisis has led to a sharpening of tensions between powers, at world and regional level, and a ferocious struggle over profits and influence. This can provoke more regional conflicts, as we saw last year in the short but bloody war between Georgia and Russia. Just as the situation in Iraq is becoming more violent and unstable ahead of a US "pull-out", Western imperialism is bogged down in the unwinnable war in Afghanistan, which is spilling over into Pakistan and threatening eventual all-out civil war and even the country's bloody break-up.

More than ever, socialists, trade unionists, anti-capitalists, students, environmental activists, anti-war campaigners and others need to unite and resist the bosses' attacks and imperialism, and to struggle for a better world.

Socialist policies needed for the workers' movement

The CWI calls for the workers' movement everywhere to urgently fight for decisive measures to guarantee jobs, a living wage, decent homes and for free education and health. The CWI fights for the immediate needs of working people and the poor along with arguing for the building of socialist movements that can transform society. Pro-capitalist governments carry out 'nationalisations' of banks and other industries at the cost of working people, with the intention that the same institutions can be later privatized. We call for socialist nationalizations, which would see big banks and the key industries brought under the democratic control and management of working people, for the benefit of the majority in society.

The crisis of capitalism is shaking up the consciousness of the masses everywhere. Many workers and youth were initially be stunned by the speed and savagery of the crisis. Many others will have no choice but to resist the onslaught against their jobs and living conditions. And as the crisis prolongs, many more sections of working class will reach the conclusion they must fight to defend their basic living standards. The struggle to defend democratic rights also takes on new importance everywhere. The capitalist state, often under the guise of "anti-terrorism legislation", uses repressive measures against an array of protesters, from anti-capitalists and environmental activists, and increasingly against the organized workers' movement.

The masses will seek an alternative to the parties of crisis capitalism, including in the US, where big illusions, or desperate hopes, currently exist in Obama personally. But Obama's policies are dictated by the interests of the big corporations and US imperialism. The huge stimulus package has not turned around the US economy, bail-outs for the rich are highly unpopular, unemployment and house repossessions climb steadily and more US troops are sent to die in the war in Afghanistan.

As working people get organized and fight-back, they will search for a way out of the crisis; for alternative ideas. The politicians are desperately trying to solely lay blame for the crisis on the heads of big banks and financial institutions and talk about 'regulation' to prevent more crises. But the heart of the problem lies in the very nature of the capitalist system. The world economic crisis vindicates the ideas of Karl Marx – that capitalism is an irrational, chaotic and hugely wasteful system, of booms and slumps, with devastating consequences for working people. We face not just one but many crises. A default on their debts by two or three East European or Latin American states, for example, could trigger the next big shocks, with global repercussions.

"The day has passed for patching up the capitalist system; it must go", wrote the great Irish Marxist James Connolly, nearly 100 years ago, and his words are more relevant than ever. The only way to permanently overcome the crisis facing humankind is by abolishing capitalism and landlordism. The task of the socialist transformation of society is to bring the big monopolies, the banks and the financial institutions into public ownership and to work out a democratic plan for the production and redistribution of wealth on a national and international scale. A planned economy, run and controlled democratically by working people, will make it possible to develop the productive forces in harmony with the environment. Only a socialist organisation of production and distribution can assure humanity a decent standard of life and end oppression and exploitation.

Strikes and factory occupations

Working people are starting to fight-back. In late 2008 and in the first part of 2009, magnificent mass demonstrations and general strikes against attacks on working and living conditions took place in Ireland, Greece, France, Italy and Portugal, and other parts of Western and Southern Europe. Mass street protests erupted against corrupt, pro-market regimes in the Baltic States and strikes are on the rise in Russia. As well as this, factory occupations occurred in the US, Ireland, Britain and the Ukraine. Huge pressure is growing in the workplaces for industrial action, from Austria to Nigeria. 'Boss-napping' is breaking out all across France, as well as widespread defensive workers' struggles, including at the Toyota car plant. School and higher education students and youth are also taking action, including in Spain and France, where some colleges and universities shut down for months. Youth are clearly showing they are willing to resist efforts to off-load capitalism's economic disaster onto the heads of their generation.

All these struggles are just a taste of what is to come. To be successful, however, mass struggles need conscious class direction and leadership. In many cases, the bureaucratic, right wing union leaders only want to divert and dissipate workers' anger. The transformation of unions into fighting, democratic organizations is a vital goal for the working class. In many parts of the world, a first step is the creation of genuinely independent organizations of the working class, including unions.

In recent years, new organizations of the Left started to develop as the former workers' parties transformed into purely capitalist entities. The NPA ('anti-capitalist party') was formally founded in France, earlier this year, and has won credible poll ratings, despite the limits of its programme. Unfortunately many of the new formations have failed to seriously champion struggles of the poor and working class or put forward clear socialist policies. A result has been that they have not taken off or have gained some electoral successes only to later fall in the polls. The leadership of the Left Party in Germany turned to the right just at a time when real socialist ideas can gain much wider popularity. The broad left alliance, SYRIZA, in Greece, has fallen in the polls as a right wing section of its leadership makes clear it wants to enter a coalition with the right wing social democratic PASOK.

Despite the setbacks concerning some of the new left formations, new broad parties of the working class will inevitably arise, at some stage, due to the deep capitalist crisis and workers' mass struggles. The 'No to EU – Yes to Democracy' EU electoral alliance in Britain, which was initiated by the militant transport workers union, the RMT, and which involves the Socialist Party (CWI England and Wales), is an important step forward.

For new left formations and parties to succeed, they must adopt fighting socialist policies and be open and democratic organizations.

Danger of racism and reactionary populism

The dramatic failure of the market economy means there will be huge opportunities to build mighty class organizations and to massively increase support for the ideas of socialism and Marxism. However, due to the lack of a strong left alternative, the political vacuum can be partially filled by other ideas and forces.

Sections of the most alienated and frustrated youth can increasingly turn to rioting, as we saw during the movement of Greek youth at the end of 2008. Small sections of youth can even look towards individual terrorism to 'hit back' against the system and oppressive state. But these false methods are a deadly cul-de-sac for youth and counter-productive to the interests of the working class. Only the organized working class, armed with socialist policies, can fundamentally change society.

Racist and reactionary populist ideas and movements can also grow. The anti-immigrant political movement based around Geert Wilders 'Party of Freedom' in the Netherlands, is leading in the polls for June's EU elections, ahead of governing parties and official opposition. The far right BNP could pick up seats in Britain in the same elections. This reflects deep hatred of the main pro-market parties by a disillusioned section of the population. The workers' movement must actively counter the far right threat and campaign against all forms of discrimination and racism; for workers' unity against the real enemy – the bosses and their profit system. This must be linked to a united campaign for jobs for all, a living wage, decent and affordable housing and fully funded public services.

On this May Day, the CWI sends solidarity greetings to all those resisting oppression, discrimination and injustice. We salute the United Socialist Party (CWI Sri Lanka), which opposes the slaughter of many innocents as the Sri Lankan army closes in on the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) with bloody consequences. The USP courageously calls for Sinhalese and Tamil workers' unity in the teeth of vicious chauvinism. We also salute the courageous CWI comrades in Pakistan, who have helped build important unions in a country under the domination of corrupt, reactionary elites and meddling imperialism, and which is wracked by reactionary political Islamist terrorism. In the teeth of right wing nationalism, the CWI in Israel campaigned against the Israeli army's slaughter in Gaza at the start of 2009.

May Day is also an occasion to remember and to learn from past workers' struggles. This year, we commemorate the 90th anniversary of the deaths of the immortal leaders of the German revolution, Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht, murdered with the connivance of right wing social democratic leaders. If the German revolution had succeeded, ushering in a socialist transformation of one of the major advanced capitalist countries, it would have broken the isolation of the young Soviet Union, the first workers' state, and acted as a huge spur to world socialist revolution.

The German revolution showed the power and role of the working class, but also the need for a clear programme, strategy and leadership, if capitalism is to be overthrown. Similarly, the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution shows the huge potential the working class had to transform society on socialist lines but a lack of a clear sighted leadership saw the revolution cruelly diverted and strangled by the rule of the reactionary Mullahs. Today huge discontent is building under the surface of Iranian society, presaging future revolutionary movements. Elsewhere in the Middle East, working people and youth are taking more independent class action, as indicated by the surge in strikes and workers' protests in Egypt over the last few months and by recent strikes in Lebanon. This points the way forward for the masses of the Middle East – united, independent class action to overthrow the despotic Arab regimes, to expel imperialism and to bring about genuine self-determination for Palestinians and other oppressed peoples.

Socialism back on the agenda

The worldwide crisis of capitalism will put the issue of socialism back on the agenda. In Latin America a number of radical populist or left-leaning leaders have been elected to power. While some welcome reforms have been gained by the working masses and the poor in countries like Bolivia and Venezuela, fundamental social change will not come simply through individual leaders but from mass action from below. To successfully overthrow capitalism and landlordism, and establish genuine workers' and peasants' democracy, mass parties of the working class, armed with bold socialist policies, are needed.

Compared to the Bush years, Obama's administration is taking a more sophisticated approach to Latin America and making even making overtures to Cuba. But the overriding aim of US imperialism is to stop the spread of radical, socialist ideas throughout the continent, to safely see off or to defeat the movements in Venezuela, Bolivia and elsewhere, and to restore capitalism in Cuba. The only way to safeguard and to extend the social gains of the Cuban revolution, whose 50th anniversary we also mark this year, is by opposing all attempts at capitalist restoration, introducing workers' democracy and the democratic control and management of the economy by the working class, and by calling for the support of the international working class.

The world crisis of capitalism and the resulting deep sense of volatility and uncertainty have already led to a big increase in young people and workers turning to the works of Marx and Engels. As the crisis deepens and prolongs, and as working people look for an alternative to the bankrupt system and its bankrupt ideology, genuine socialism and Marxism will find a greater response. More sections of the poor and oppressed will conclude that that capitalism is a rotten, barbarous system that must be overthrown and that the global profit system must be resisted by the international solidarity and collaboration of the working class and oppressed. From Marx and Engels, youth will look to the ideas of Lenin and Trotsky and other great Marxist thinkers and leaders. Over the next period of tumultuous events, these ideas can become the property of the masses, in country after country. Capitalism, on a global scale, can at last be replaced with a genuine socialist society, where the world's enormous wealth and resources are used for the benefit of humanity.

29 April 2009