MALAYSIA: POWER TRANSITION TO SAVE WEAKENING UMNO/BN

Malaysia's sixth Prime Minister, Najib Razak, took office on 3^rd April from his predecessor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, after he was elected as UMNO president. This transition took effect under immense pressure within UMNO (United Malay Nationalist Organization), the dominant party of the Barisan Nasional (National Front) government. This is a desperate attempt to save UMNO and BN from the tainted and weakened position since the humiliating defeat in the last General Election (March 2008). However, this power transition does not bode well amongst many ordinary people who have become disgusted with racial politics and cronyism that only benefits BN politicians and the capitalist class. With the weakening economy and emboldened oppositions, this could lead to the fall of UMNO/BN who has had political domination since independence in 1957.

5 years Abdullah as PM

When Abdullah took over the premiership from Mahathir Mohamad in 2003, he promised reforms to strengthen democracy, weed out corruption and make governance transparent and accountable, with the motto "work with me and not for me". After more than 20 years of an autocratic regime and the neo-liberal attacks of Mahathir, Abdullah's promises of reform swept the BN to an extraordinary electoral victory in the 2004 General Election. But the overwhelming public support for his reform agenda soon turned to frustration and anger when ordinary people could not see much of the change that was assured to them, though Abdullah allowed a bit more freedom of expression than had Mahathir.

Abdullah was considered as a 'clean' man but he failed to even clean some of the corrupted government machinery, such as the police and judiciary. He has also been powerless in confronting the profit system of capitalism to raise the living standards of the working class and most of the time he favours the needs of the capitalist class. Instead, his laissez-faire leadership had succumbed to the demands of his party apparatchiks to follow the status quo set by his predecessors. The working class and poor, who suffered under Mahathir's autocratic regime, are discontented that Abdullah seems incapable of challenging 'Mahathirism'. This has shattered their hopes for change.

The people's frustration and anger towards UMNO and BN broadened when racial hypocrisy and the wealth disparity between rich and poor became more serious. They also realised that the UMNO/BN hegemony has meant the abandonment of the rights and the needs of ordinary people and they must be "taught a lesson". This anger amongst people, regardless of race, particularly in West Malaysia was translated into protest votes against the UMNO and BN to generate the 'political tsunami' of 8^th March 2008. This resulted in unprecedented losses to the ruling government of BN – the biggest in 50 years. The BN lost its two-thirds majority and five state governments to the opposition coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat, although the BN has remained as the government of the day.

With the set-back, UMNO leaders fear that the dire straits the party is in could lead to total defeat in the next general election, due before 2013, if it is not revitalized with "strong leadership". Consequently, the crushing blow ended Abdullah's tenure as he was forced into early retirement, despite his efforts to cling on.

Mahathir also played a part in ousting Abdullah by blaming his policies for ruining the UMNO but ironically it was during Mahathir's tenure that the UMNO had been thrown into patronage and money politics. Meanwhile, Najib is considered a close ally of Mahathir and now Mahathir has vowed to assist Najib to regain the "past glory" of UMNO, in other words to solidify 'Mahathirism'.

Najib's tarnished image

Paradoxically, even before taking power, Najib had been under a cloud of allegations, including ones linking him to a murder case and another one on corruption. Many also believe that Najib has also played a key role in the 'power coup' in the state of Perak, where three assemblymen of Pakatan were lured to support the BN. Pakatan won the state of Perak in the last General Election but with the exodus of their 3 assemblymen, with the support of Sultan of Perak, BN hurriedly formed the government in the state.

Although Najib denied all these allegations, this has somehow undermined the public perception of him. This is the first time a Prime Minister of Malaysia has been deemed to have such a very low public profile as soon as taking power.

However, in order to amplify his leadership credibility, Najib, in his maiden speech, put his direction: "One Malaysia, People First, Performance Now". With the diminishing public support, Najib knows there is no honeymoon period for him and he desperately needed something positive to boost his standing. He immediately took action to release 13 ISA detainees and to lift a temporary ban on two opposition parties' newspapers. Such attempts to gain political impetus are not new to Malaysian politics. When Mahathir and Abdullah took power they also staged similar stunts with slogans and rhetoric of reforms. Since people had experienced enough with such empty rhetoric and slogans during the era of Mahathir and Abdullah, Najib's attempts, with his low standing, didn't augur well amongst most ordinary people.

Weakening UMNO/BN

With the power transition, the UMNO desperately hoped that with the new leadership, the BN would be rejuvenated to "turn back the clock and bring back past glory" of the time when they ruled the country with the mighty support of the electorate. But this hope was dashed when the BN could not win the recently held by-election of Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau in West Malaysia, viewed as a referendum on Najib. This indicates that the appointment of Najib as Prime Minister had no great impact on the general public as with the great euphoria when Abdullah took over from Mahathir in 2003.

Many political analysts are also foreseeing that the UMNO/BN would enter the last period of their demise if unwilling to change - 'change or perish' - with the new political landscape since the last general election, the strengthened opposition and embolden electorate.

But as Zainah Anwar, The Star political analyst put it, "For as long as the government continues to play Santa Claus to keep UMNO members happy, there will be no end to money politics and corruption in the party. This is the big running sore that is poisoning UMNO". Will Najib rock the boat to change the tainted UMNO? As Zainah continues, "Who within UMNO dares to sink the gravy boat? Obviously, if the new President does not also embark on this big party clean up, the discontent between UMNO and the rakyat will be prolonged".

In this tainted and weakened position, if UMNO/BN could not be revamped, as a veteran politician advised Najib, "Do what your father did. If the BN has become useless, then you have to throw it away". He was referring to the decision by Najib's father, Abdul Razak Hussein, to revamp the Alliance coalition into Barisan Nasional in 1973 by influencing some of the opposition parties such as PAS, GERAKAN and PPP into its fold, making it more popular among the voters. At that time, this attempt was to counter Left leaning support among non-Malays and the growing support of the Islamic Party among rural Malays.

Since the General Election, the opposition parties, with different beliefs and approaches, are rallying behind Anwar Ibrahim under the banner of Pakatan Rakyat (People Coalition). With the increasing popularity of Anwar and his prominence amongst international capitalists, there are more possibilities of some ruling parties joining the PR if the UMNO/BN is further weakened.

Meanwhile Najib will try to disintegrate the Pakatan Rakyat in order to strengthen the BN. If conflict erupts among Opposition parties, in the name of strengthening Malay or Islam supremacy, the PAS could join the BN, as indicated by some PAS leaders few months ago.

But at this stage the UMNO/BN has become saturated with crony capitalism, compared to its characteristics in 1970. If the BN were restructured, this means crony capitalism, which is its main attractive point, would disintegrate. The careerist politicians and members of the UMNO/BN will not easily allow this link to be lost.

Crony capitalism

The UMNO at present is merely a patronage machine and we could trace the emergence of this culture, since the inception of the New Economy Policy (NEP) in 1971 by Najib's father, Abdul Razak, who was the second Prime Minister at that time. Initially the NEP was intended to eradicate poverty among rural Malays but later was used as a tool to sustain the support of Malays towards the UMNO by making it "a circle of goodies in return for support".

Full-blown crony capitalism occurred in the Mahathir era, between 1981 and 2003. During his tenure, the formation of a 'party-state' was realized through the notion of "Malaysia Incorporated", very similar to what was practiced in Taiwan. In the 1980s, with the massive development of heavy industries and widespread privatization of state enterprises, Mahathir used the NEP to develop and strengthen the position of the Malay capitalist class and this further fortified the patronage culture among UMNO members. There are also linkages established to noted business tycoons, many of whom engaged in 'rent-seeking' enterprises. One statistic shows that the UMNO and UMNO-related individuals were said to hold directorships in more than 100 companies with assets valued at RM4 billion by 1990.

At present, for many, the UMNO is merely a passport to personal wealth accumulation and to gain lucrative positions. This has deeply brought the party into money politics, systemic corruption, 'rent-seeking' behavior and entrenched patronage. The other BN component parties such as MCA, MIC and others, have also emulated the patronage culture of the UMNO to entice the support of their respective race, in another words, 'divide and rule' the different races to maintain the power.

Emboldened opposition

On the other hand, more and more working class and poor, regardless of race, have become conscious that the cronies of the UMNO/ BN have been reaping the profits generated by the 'labour' of the working class. Because of the unscrupulous acts of these capitalist parties, the working class and the poor have been left out of gaining proper benefits from the abundant wealth and rapid development of the country. Many have come to the conclusion that they need to change the status quo. Since there is no mass party of the working class, they are turning their support towards Pakatan Rakyat.

Based on results of by-elections since the general election, the PR, with the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim, has been increasing its support, particularly in West Malaysia. The recently held by-election in Batang Ai, which the BN won, showed that it still has the upper hand in the politics in Sarawak and Sabah (East Malaysia). But disgruntled feelings amongst people in these states, against the BN policies, are growing and could favour the PR if some of the reforms promised by the BN in these states do not come to fruition.

The PR could also take advantage of the internal conflicts between the Najib and Abdullah factions in UMNO. The growing purge of Abdullah people from the party leadership has angered supporters of Abdullah. If the conflicts worsen, this might end-up with the exodus of Abdullah supporters to the PR camp.

Deteriorating economy

However, there are still many who are not convinced by the politics of the PR, with their pro-capitalist agenda. These fence-sitters are concerned more about the economy and their living standards than the politics of these parties. Therefore, at this stage the future of the UMNO/BN rule very much depends on the performance of the country's economy.

As an economist of the United Overseas Bank said, "Asia yet to see the worst…it's just a matter of time because we are still in early stages of crisis". The future of the economy in every corner of the world looks gloomy and uncertain. Even in this early stage, in Malaysia, many working class people, as well as the middle class, have suffered the pinch of the global economic meltdown. So far, almost 30,000 jobs have been lost, mainly in the manufacturing and electronics sectors, since January. Even the capitalists' club, the MEF (Malaysian Employee Federation) predicted that by the end of the year, 400,000 workers could be made redundant. Export fell by almost 30% year-on-year in January as a result of the reduced demands from the US, Europe, China, Japan and Singapore. It's expected that the economy will contract 2.5% in the first quarter and by 4% in the second and third quarters.

The reform agenda of Najib and his "team for change" could be further undermined by the gloomy outlook of the economy. The export-orientated economy of Malaysia is very vulnerable to global economic circumstances and the government has totally lost control. However, with the worsening economy, in order to save the national capitalists, Najib could be forced to use the similar protectionist measures that Mahathir implemented during the 1997 financial crisis.

In worsening circumstances, with declining support from the ordinary people and increasing conflicts in the UMNO, the PR with the support of some national and international capitalists, could take advantage and form the government.

Nevertheless, with its 50 years hegemony and its crony capitalism, the BN won't accede to defeat with ease. At the same time, many expect that Najib could use the deteriorating economic outlook of country and the growing internal conflict in the UMNO as a pretext for reverting to Mahathir-style repression. This means that the BN could exploit every possible way to be in power, including undermining and using repressive measures against the PR leaders and the opposition forces. In worsening circumstances, this might lead to the re-emergence of the 'reformasi' movement, which could be on a bigger scale than in 1998.

Capitalism in crisis

The capitalist system has been groomed by the UMNO/BN since independence and reached a high point during Mahathir's era. Many young people, workers, peasants, students and others, particularly in West Malaysia, that have been oppressed, have come to the view that the UMNO/BN has become saturated with a profit-orientated mentality and is incapable of preserving and fulfilling their fundamental rights and needs.

This shows that the capitalist system, supported by the UMNO/BN government, aims to merely assist the national and international capitalists to maximize profits and, at the same time, act as a conduit to fulfill the unscrupulous desires of their leaders and members for power and luxury. With these characters, they are not going to fulfill the fundamental needs of the working class, young people and others that are oppressed by the system. Abdullah, the 'clean' man, failed to carry out reforms that he himself promised when he took power, because he was powerless in confronting and challenging the corrupted system of capitalism.

Although the PR is talking about reforms and democratic rights it is unwilling to challenge the system of capitalism. In fact, Anwar, when part of UMNO, was a disciple of neo-liberalism, trained in the Chicago School.
They are simply proposing to make free market capitalism 'nicer' by reducing corruption and increasing transparency. This, in reality, is the demand of international capitalists to further conquer the investment/business opportunities and local resources from the national capitalists. And the national capitalists are using the crony capitalism of the UMNO/BN to safeguard their profit-orientated desire not to be subjugated by multinationals.

The PR governments in states like Selangor and Penang are powerless when the multinational corporations make workers redundant. They could not even confront the cheap labour policies and the repressive labour and union laws that exploit the workers. Moreover, they have no clear programme to safeguard or preserve the rights of the working class if the PR manages to take over the country.

Under capitalism, certain democratic rights or reforms could be won under pressure from mass movements. If the PR manages to take power, there is possibility that they could concede some reforms and democratic rights under the pressure of working people demanding change.

But the export-orientated economy of Malaysia is subordinate to global capitalism, which means Malaysia has to succumb to the needs of global capitalism. In that case international capitalists are always more powerful than the government itself and most of the time the government has to accede to these multinationals' demands and the needs to maximize profits. That is why we have cheap labour policies, no minimum wage, no union rights etc that suppress the living standards of the working class and the poor.

Consequently, regardless of how sincere the government is or how clean the leaders are, if they are pro-capitalism, they would succumb to the demands of the system. This is to appease the capitalists for their investment and business activities. In that case, some democratic rights or reforms that are gained at certain periods could be clawed back if they undermine the profit system of capitalism. Therefore the struggle for democratic rights must come together with the struggle against the capitalism.

Socialism - the future

Capitalism in the world is in severe crisis and it will be the working class and poor who will be called upon to pay the price. With the pro-capitalist agenda, the BN and the PR are not representing the class interests of the working class and they have no answers to the economic crisis and workers' concern other than to save the free market capitalism with their reform agenda.

The capitalist system offers no way forward for the working class, poor and others that are affected by the system. It is also devastating for our environment. As an alternative we need to build a socialist society that prioritizes the fundamental needs of the society nationally and globally by democratic planning.

Therefore, besides fighting for democratic rights, the working class and poor of Malaysia, with the support of peasants, the middle class and students, has a huge task to build a mass party that clearly counters the destructive character of the capitalist system and at the same time puts forward a socialist programme. This is the time to build this alternative, the working class alternative for our future.

Ravichandren, 18/4/2009

SINGAPORE: CRISIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM HITS SINGAPORE HARD

Export-driven economy shrinks

Singapore was once regarded as a 'Tiger economy' along with other countries in Asia when referring to its robust and unperturbed economic growth. Its economic success, with a per capita income of over US$24,000, was attributed to its free market capitalism, with about three-quarters of its income coming from external trade and investments.

The PAP (People Action Party), which has ruled Singapore since it became a nation state in 1965, has developed this tiny country to be a favourable business island for the free market, by imposing some measure of state capitalism. This was accompanied by its pro-business policies and neo-liberalism which has subjugated workers' rights and independent trades union, as well as other fundamental democratic rights.

In a recent interview in the CNBC, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong related that the country's role in the global economy: "We are part of the world economy. We make chips, we make pharmaceuticals, we make petrochemicals. We consume maybe one percent of what we make of these things. Probably less …We are making for the world. We buy from the world, for the world... that's how we prosper."

Now with the vulnerability of the same free market system, Singapore, the richest country in Southeast Asia, is forecast to slip into its worst recession this year, with the economy likely to shrink by up to 5%, perhaps as much as 10% if exports continue to fall sharply. Previously, the worst recession since 1965 was in 2001, when the economy contracted 2.4%.

World demand for Singapore's exports declining rapidly

Singapore's manufacturing output contracted by 22.4% in February. The key electronics cluster continued to be weak, recording a 37.3% drop in production on-year. Numbers do not look healthy for the biomedical sector either, with pharmaceuticals posting a 29.4% decline. Tourist arrivals see the worst on-year drop in 6 years, down over 15% in February. These figures show that Singapore is a heavily export dependent economy with the US, Europe and China as its main export countries and under the current unprecedented global economic impacts, the demand from these countries is declining at a rapid pace.

For the first time ever, Singapore has to use its trillions of dollars in foreign reserves to help fund a US$13.7 billion 'Resilience Package' announced in the budget in January. However, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a BBC interview that these measures will "help companies to remain viable but we must understand that what we can do is to buffer the impact…you must wait for the storm to pass". Meanwhile, the still influential Prime Minister's father, Lee Kuan Yew, who is also a mentor minister, predicted that the 'storm' may take up to "two to three years" at the optimistic scenario but "at the worst, four, five, six years…" to recover.

Moreover, the government's investment arm, Temasek, which has invested heavily in overseas and in government-owned enterprises, such as the telecom giant SingTel, Singapore Airlines, DBS Bank Keppel Corporation and Semb-Corp, gains a large portion of its income from overseas operations. Their share prices and overseas income have plummeted.

The biggest impact of the recession is the escalating job losses that have become a national dilemma affecting all from the migrant workers to professionals.

Migrant workers first to be sacked and forced home

Singapore, which has no natural resources, depends mainly on shipyard, construction and manufacturing industries. When these industries were going well in 2007, almost 800,000 migrant workers were hired for cheap labour. But as the economy plummeted into recession last year, demand for labour dropped and major projects were cancelled or delayed. Many migrant workers from Malaysia, Bangladesh and others are the first to be sacked and forced back home. Last month, some 60 unemployed Bangladeshi migrant workers assembled in front of Singapore's Ministry of Manpower, demanding work and unpaid wages from previous employers. One of them, Rahman, who gave up his farming job in Bangladesh and took a loan of S$7000 from money lenders back home to pay an agent fee to work in Singapore, said: "We take loan, we cannot pay, we die". The lives of most of the migrant workers, who have come to work in metropolitan Singapore for better wages to support their families in their home country, are now in jeopardy.

This recession is not only affecting the exploited migrant workers but also some of the local workers or even professionals that have enjoyed high living standards over the years. Before the recession, a local married couple with higher education degrees and 3 years working experience could earn a combined S$7,000 to S$8,000 a month. Since the recession, thousands have become unemployed and many are working with reduced wages (working shorter weeks or taking pay cuts).

Degree and diploma holders form the biggest number of redundant local workers in Singapore, in which half of those sacked in the last quarter of 2008 were professionals, managers, executives and technicians. Graduates make up half the number of the new jobless and according to government figures unemployed graduates more than doubled to 14,800 in December 2008 (from 6,200 in 2007). It is also expected that 17,000 youths will be graduating this year from local universities and some 8,000 to 10,000 more from foreign institutions. In a survey of 100 graduating students, conducted by a local newspaper, more than half said "they were afraid of heading into the real world".

Recently a local newspaper reported that up to 66,000 Singapore civil servants could face a cut in their salaries this year, as a result of the economic slowdown. Meanwhile, to cut costs, the government linked companies, such as Singapore Airlines, are planning to lay off thousands of workers.

The government, in its stimulus package, has allocated large sums of money for retraining redundant workers for possible future jobs, which could be in areas different to those they have worked in before, but this will not be attractive to many semi-skilled and skilled workers or to the many retrenched professionals.

Recession and social and political conflict

Singapore has a population of 4.84 million, including about a million foreigners. According to Credit Suisse, if the recession persists at least for the next two years, it may force the exit of 200,000 unemployed foreign workers and around 100,000 locals. This could be another problem for the already declining consumption in the domestic market and it is against the government's policy to further enlarge its population to maintain its skilled manpower. The high living standard enjoyed by Singaporeans could be in peril if this recession persists and this could possibly lead to social and political conflict.

Some commentators even suggest that Singapore should shift away from its export-driven economic development model to survive the deep recession. But this seems impossible given the nature of the country and the present character of global capitalism.

Singapore, as a small country and without natural resources, has to be dependent on the global market for its economic survival. This is because the means of production are controlled by national and multinational companies and their activities are linked to global capitalism to make exorbitant profits. The rapacious nature of this profit-orientated system has exposed the vulnerability of an export-dependent country like Singapore to the anarchy of global capitalism.

The consequences caused by this crisis of capitalism are now being loaded onto the shoulders of the working and middle class. As long as the production is not planned according to the needs of the society, this crisis will be repeated. The creator of the wealth, the working class, should play a leading role, with the support of the middle class and the oppressed, changing this profit-based system to a democratic socialist planned economy to fulfill the needs of society.

16 April 2009

THAILAND: BATTLES ON STREETS OF BANGKOK

Neither major party has solution for working and poor people

A temporary calm has returned to the streets of Bangkok and other cities of Thailand. On Tuesday, protest leader Prateep Ungsongtham Hata told the AFP news agency: "We held talks among the leaders since last night and have agreed that we will disperse our protesters for a while."

For a few days, pitched battles were fought on the streets of Bangkok, with the army using tanks and live ammunition against thousands of red-shirted young protesters. Buses were driven straight at police lines. Buildings, cars and tyres were set on fire. Two deaths and 100 or so serious injuries resulted. The prime minister's car was attacked and armoured cars demobilised by angry crowds.

The aim of the 'Reds' is to oust Abhisit Vejjajiva - the fourth prime minister of Thailand in 15 months - and bring back the multi-billionaire, Thaksin Shinawatra. (Thaksin's government was overthrown by a military coup in 2006).

On 11 April, apparently unhindered, his supporters invaded and occupied the Royal Cliff Beach Hotel in Pattaya, forcing 16 Asian heads of state holding a summit there to leave from the roof by helicopter. A state of emergency was declared and blue-shirted paramilitaries deployed. Protesters in Bangkok, stormed the Interior Ministry and occupied the area around the government buildings in the centre of the capital. Their party is known as the 'United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship'.

Only towards the end of last year it was the yellow-clad supporters of Abhisit who had laid siege to Government House for two months and then invaded and occupied two airports until the government sympathetic to Thaksin was ruled illegal. That time there had been little or no interference from the army whose leaders sided with the 'yellows'. On December 12th , Abhisit's party – the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) – had 'won over' enough pro-Thaksin parliamentarians to form a government (Some say it was money, others that it was threats from the military behind the scenes.)

PAD – based predominantly on the urban middle and some sections of the working class – stood for more and not less involvement of the monarchy and the army in government, with 70% of representatives unelected. Thaksin's support comes mainly from the vast number of poor farmers in the countryside who benefitted from his populist measures. At the same time, he carried out neo-liberal policies to appease the investors and the business class, which angered workers in the urban areas.

50,000 rallied at the time of the government crisis last year but their leader is still absent in Dubai, having been sentenced to serve two years in jail on 'conflict of interest' charges. Not surprising then is the latest call to his supporters of 12 April: "Now that they have tanks on the streets, it is time for the people to come out in revolution!" After its victory he aims to make a triumphal return.

If the plight of the poverty-stricken people of Thailand was not so tragic, and some of their number had not now lost their lives, the events of the last few days would appear comical. In fact, in the context of Thailand's economy being one of the worst hit by the global capitalist crisis, it is a tragedy that neither of the major parties has a programme of measures to pull them out of dire poverty and constant anguish.

This is what lies behind the anger and hatred displayed on the streets by predominantly young people, but no socialist force exists to channel it against the ruling elite. Some who ardently support the campaign for democracy, are not happy with the 'leadership' of Thaksin. The populist demagogy of capitalist forces on either side can only succeed because of the vacuum on the left and will be found wanting, sooner or later, by the mass of Thai workers and poor.

The cancelled summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan, South Korea, India and New Zealand was due to seek remedies to the region's battered economies. On a capitalist basis, they would have had no solutions.

What is happening in Thailand, a country that has seen a total of 18 military coups since the 1930s, is an indication of the political turmoil and instability that can be repeated on an even greater scale in other countries in Asia (and elsewhere) as they are hit by the present crisis. It brings home the grave urgency of building mass parties of workers and poor people and of fighting for a socialist transformation of society, in Asia and internationally.

Clare Doyle, CWI

14 April 2009

SRI LANKA: STOP THE SLAUGHTER OF TAMILS (SST)

http://www.stoptheslaughteroftamils.org/

Campaign to end the war and fight for democracy in Sri Lanka

SST

There is ferment among Tamil-speaking people around the world over the slaughter taking place in the north of Sri Lanka. Over 3,000 people have died already in recent weeks. Nearly 200,000 Tamil people are still trapped in the warzone. The Rajapakse government refuses to cooperate in a ceasefire to evacuate them. All critics of the government are silenced. SST is an international campaign to demand an end to this slaughter and to fight for democratic and trade union rights in Sri Lanka.

The demands of the campaign are:

 1. Stop the war! For an immediate end to the military operations in Sri Lanka; withdrawal of the army from all Tamil areas; stop the disappearances.

2. No to detention camps! Immediately provide for the Tamil people's basic needs of food, shelter, health, under the control of their own elected representatives.

3. Not a rupee, not a bullet for the war-mongering Rajapakse regime! An immediate end to military and commercial support for Sri Lanka by western imperialism and by India, China, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Japan and other countries. For workers' action against their involvement and cooperation; workers' boycott of arms shipments.

4. Democratic rights for all throughout Sri Lanka! Freedom of speech, freedom of the press and media, trade union rights for all workers including in the Free Trade Zones, freedom of association and the right to free and fair elections, the right of all to vote without interference, for all party to organise and stand in elections who accept equal rights for all, regardless of nationality, religion, caste and sex.  

5. Full support for building united trade unions in Sri Lanka, for press freedom campaigns and for the work of bodies like the Civil Monitoring Committee investigating kidnappings and extra-judicial murders in Sri Lanka. 

6. Defend the right to self-determination! Campaign to support a mass movement of workers and poor in the north to establish their right to determine their own future

 
 

G20 SUMMIT: CAPITALISM FACING 'MAKE OR BREAK'

AHEAD OF the G20 summit, tens of thousands of trade unionists, left wingers, environmentalists, NGOs and aid charities took part in the peaceful 'Put People First' demonstration through central London last Saturday.

Given the mix of protesters, the slogan of the organisers was an all-encompassing 'Jobs, Justice and Climate'. But as members of the Socialist Party (CWI Britain and Wales) explained to people on the demo, the single cause of mass unemployment, social inequality and environmental destruction is the profit-driven system of capitalism.

US billionaire speculator George Soros commented last weekend that the world capitalist economy is facing "make or break" as far as a new economic depression is concerned. As such, the Socialist Party argued that industrial action, including the question of generalised strike movements to defend people's livelihoods and developing a broad socialist movement against capitalism, was the order of the day.

On the Socialist Party (CWI Britain and Wales) stalls at the assembly and end rally points hundreds of people signed our anti-capitalist petition, with many filling in our join cards and expressing an interest in joining the mid-week 'Youth for Jobs' G20 protest march through London. Hundreds of copies of The Socialist were sold to demonstrators, including trade unionists from France and Germany.

SRI LANKA: ‘END OF WAR’ STORES UP MAJOR NEW CONFLICTS

TAMIL PEOPLE MUST HAVE RIGHT TO DECIDE OWN FUTURE

The understanding given by the Sri Lankan Army-controlled media that the war is almost finished, and the victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is just a matter of time, is the kind of falsehood practiced in all wars. It is, however, pertinent to emphasise that the LTTE is facing defeat in the present phase of the decades-long civil war.

The claims of the army commanders that the battle zone is restricted to an increasingly small geographical area with the LTTE operations confined to between 30 and 50 square kilometres, is only one interpretation of the reality on the ground. To think that the war with the LTTE – a heavily armed guerrilla force - will come to an end with such strategies is like believing Jehovah's Witnesses predictions about the end of the world.

The course of events in the Eastern Province of the country, after the so-called victory over the LTTE, is just an indication of the complexity of a war conducted against a guerrilla force fighting a national liberation struggle. The defection of former LTTE leader in that area, Karuna, undoubtedly gave the Sri Lankan Army a huge advantage. The 'pacification' of the East, with elections carried through often literally at gunpoint, has contributed to the pushing back of the LTTE in the North.

The powers that be on an international scale want to believe the Sri Lankan Army propaganda in the hope that the "terrorist LTTE" headache will be eliminated and they can get on with doing business here. For the 'Big Brother' of the region, India, it is urgent that the war comes to an end because of the explosions within its southern areas especially in Tamil Nadu.

Human disaster

'Eelam War 4', as it has been labeled by the Sri Lankan media, is now getting dangerously close to civilians trapped in the war zone. A few days ago, the 55th Division of the SLA claimed the sinking of 10 boats operating under the command of the 'Sea Tiger' leader, Soosai. This is another indication that the LTTE is prepared to fight on till the bitter end, regardless of civilian casualties. Independent estimates say that there are still nearly 200,000 people living - or rather, waiting to die - in the war zone. They are in the unprecedented situation of having to live amongst the heavy military equipment, such as mortars and other artillery, which the LTTE has housed in the area and which constitutes their last hope.

It is not difficult to understand in this situation why the LTTE is not allowing civilians to go out of the battle zone. Maybe most of the civilians have even decided to stay with the LTTE to the end, as each of the people has lost some of their nearest and dearest in the 30 year bloody war. The choice of going out of the war zone is like choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea. The fate of people who have gone over to the so-called safe areas controlled by the SLA is like walking into concentration camps. Every Tamil is regarded as an LTTE suspect.

Tension mounts as the JVP and the Sinhala chauvinist government are discussing Sinhala settlers being implanted in the North of Sri Lanka. Already 40,000 villagers in the 'border areas' of Sri Lanka's South have been given arms by the government to protect themselves. Such measures are a guarantee of further outbursts of violence and a continuation of the national conflict in Sri Lanka in one form or another.

The euphoria of the envisaged "victory" is already in the air. All the hard-line communal groups are campaigning with a propaganda which says this military victory will be a victory of the Sinhalese over the Tamils. They also describe this as a rare occasion - Sri Lanka being unified by a Sinhalese ruler.

Given the situation on the ground, it cannot be ruled out that the SLA will move in to clear the LTTE-controlled areas sooner rather than later. But the big question remains what happens after that. Even if one can say that the LTTE will be defeated militarily, it is by no means certain that they will be defeated politically, especially with the growing concerns and support that is witnessed in Tamil Nadu and among the Tamil Diaspora around the world.

In the south of the country, the extreme Sinhala nationalist forces are working overtime to thwart any attempt to introduce any substantial devolution of power. The "majoritarian Sinhala Buddhist" campaign will get shriller as the war victory arrives. The pseudo Marxist, Janata Vimukthi Perumuna (People's Liberation Front - JVP) has already started its gutter-stirring politics by building resistance to any power devolution. It hopes to come back to the limelight using that as its core issue at the present time. A section of the SLA will strongly support this idea.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa will have to ride new rough waters as he prepares to address the post-war situation. What is his offer to the Tamil national minority? He is already under extreme pressure from India and other western powers. Military victory over the LTTE is likely to be short-lived for him as he will open up new political battle zones very soon.

All Tamils, including Tamil-speaking Muslims, in Sri Lanka must be finding it hard to comprehend what the three decades of armed struggle has achieved for them. It is easy to point to the follies and the blind alley of individual terrorism and armed guerrilla tactics in the modern context and the lack of appeal by the 'Tigers' for mass struggle against the regime. Nevertheless the primary responsibility for the disastrous war must be seen in the inability of the capitalist class to solve the basic issues affecting ordinary working and poor people, including granting the democratic right of Tamils to self-determination. The history of this in Sri Lanka, especially since independence from the British, is glaringly manifested. The early leaders of the Tamils, during the 1950s, asked only for equal rights for the Tamil language. This was not acceptable to the Sinhala capitalist class. At the same time, betrayals by dilly-dallying working class leaders have to be equally condemned for not taking up this issue and linking it with the class struggle against imperialism, local capitalists and landlords.

As socialists, we in the United Socialist Party (CWI in Sri Lanka) have taken a principled stand, from the very inception of our work, to defend the right to self-determination of Tamil people as a major step ton the road towards solving the national question. More concretely, at present we are campaigning first and foremost to stop the biggest human disaster happening to the war trapped civilians in the Mulaittivu jungles. The Sri Lankan government has pushed forward to finish the war; they have promised again and again to end it before the Sri Lankan New Year in April. Nearly 200,000 people lives are at stake. Now the working class internationally must organise their voice against this mass slaughter. Already tremendous support is building among the working class and ordinary people in India through a campaign launched under the name "Stop the Slaughter of Tamils" (See article of 19 March on this site). We appeal to workers and other oppressed sections internationally to join this campaign and fight to end this war immediately. Take up the fight also to win genuine democratic rights for all in Sri Lanka.

Provincial elections

The last provincial council elections were held on14 February in central and north central Sri Lanka. Mahinda Rajapaksa's 'Sandanaya Alliance' managed to win easily with nearly 65% of votes cast. Rajapaksa is still popular among the Sinhala voters because of the prospect of a war victory. But it is clear that the majority of Tamil and Muslim voters have not voted for Rajapaksa.

In Kandy district, for example, Sandanaya has not got a singleTamil or Muslim member amongst the 18 councillors they won. In Nuwara Eliya, the unprincipled party of Thondeman claims to represent the super-exploited plantation workers there, but he also supports the Rajapaksa government. It had 7 councillors but this time it has been reduced to three. Another ally of Rajapasa's, 'Sandanaya Chandrasekaran', had three councillors. This time it has been reduced to nil. All this shows the anger against the Rajapaksa regime by ordinary Tamil people who live totally outside the North East.

In these elections the USP contested 3 out of 5 districts. There were two other left parties who also contested. In general in the last many elections the USP has managed to come in 4th place. Similarly, in this election also the USP has come 4th and 5th. This is in spite of having leading candidates on the list held in prison on trumped up charges and only released after the election was over!

In fact, we got more votes than other left organisations. For example, in Nuwara Eliya the USP received 688 votes, the 'Left Front' (of the Nava Sama Samaja Party) won 118 and the Socialist Equality Party got 98 votes. In Matale district, the Left Front contested alone and they got just 60 votes.

Even though we are not happy contesting elections in a semi-dictatorial situation, because of the lack of a working class and left alternative in the country, we have been compelled to contest the elections again, this time in Western Province (Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts) on April 25. The Left Front and the SEP are contesting again but only in the Colombo district.

In this election, the USP is campaigning above all to stop the war but also to defend the right of self-determination of the Tamil people, the freedom to live and to form joint trade union councils to fight against cuts and win the demands of the working class. The recent discussions with the International Monetary Fund about a $1.9 billion hand-out also involved promises of austerity for workers. Big political and class battles could open up quite quickly, given the major difficulties of capitalism locally and internationally.

Siritunga Jayasuriya, United Socialist Party (CWI in Sri Lanka)

20 March 2009

 

CWI ANALYSIS : HOW TO FIGHT THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

CAPITALIST CRISIS,

MASS CONSCIOUSNESS

AND

A SOCIALIST PROGRAMME

How can working-class people fight the effects of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s? Mass lay-offs are already a feature in the major capitalist countries and around the world. The bosses and their governments are on the offensive to make the working class, and large sections of the middle classes, pay for the catastrophe they have created.

World capitalism is in a blind alley and its serious representatives see no quick exit. Take your pick; from the gloomy prognostications for the economy from Alistair Darling, British Chancellor of the Exchequer – 'the worst for 60 years' – to Ed Balls, schools cabinet minister in the New Labour government, who says it is the worst in 100 years! Most capitalist commentators now agree with our analysis, that at the very least, this is the worst economic crisis since the great depression of the 1930s and may yet exceed it.

In a sense, this crisis is potentially even worse than then. The extent of capitalist globalisation, which led to this crash,, is much wider and deeper than existed in the so-called 'gilded age' before 1929. For this reason, it is already the most internationalised, generalised economic crisis in history. The US, western Europe, Japan, eastern Europe, Russia, Asia, Australasia and Latin America; all have been caught up in the downward economic whirlpool. It has certainly developed at a speed and with a severity that exceeds even the initial phases of the 1930s depression.

The crisis then began in the stock exchanges, spreading to the financial sector and inexorably into the so-called 'real economy'. Today's crisis was triggered by the financial meltdown, fed into industry, and now has fed back into the financial sector. But 1929's full effects were only felt over time – in the case of France, two or three years after – whereas this crisis has struck with a speed and severity that has terrified, if not demoralised, the representatives of world capitalism. What took three years in 1929 could now unfold in a year.

This crisis is marked by overproduction; a glut of goods, which the bosses are trying to solve through mass unemployment of the working class. But it is also leading to 'overproduction' even amongst sections of the middle class, who are being ejected from workplaces alongside workers. In other words, the proletarianisation of the intermediate layers, a feature of capitalism even during the boom, is taking a qualitative step forward. This in turn undermines the social reserves of capitalism.

Capitulation by workers' organisations

The capitalists are trembling at the social consequences of further economic implosions to come. Their only consolation is that they face no organised challenge from the working class, because of the political beheading of the former workers' organisations, at the hands of leaders like Tony Blair in Britain and their social-democratic cousins in Europe and elsewhere. They went over lock, stock and barrel to the side of the bourgeoisie in the aftermath of the collapse of Stalinism and the ideological, pro-capitalist tsunami that ensued. The result is that the mass of working-class people are politically disarmed in the teeth of the greatest challenge to their hard-won rights and conditions in living memory.

Without leadership and organisation when the capitalists have used the cover of the crisis to put the boot in, mass anger has poured out spontaneously both in the factories and onto the streets. This happened in Ireland as the government sought to eliminate health benefits for the elderly. It was followed by angry protests including occupations or threats to do so at Waterford Crystal and Dell, as brutal capital shut down whole factories with as little difficulty as shutting a matchbox. The same outrageous scenes were seen in the ending of the weekend shift at BMW's Mini plant in Cowley, Oxford, which provoked unprecedented protests including fist fights between workers and supervisors. However, for this elemental revolt of the working class to lead to a sustained movement, what is required is a clear programme, including fighting slogans, and organisation.

The capitulation, also shared by the trade union leaders, actually helped to reinforce the brutal imposition of neo-liberal policies on the working class and the poor worldwide. The bourgeoisie, no longer forced to look over its shoulder at an organised working class or fearful of a labour movement revolt, was therefore unrestrained in the mad dash towards unregulated capitalism. The former leaders of the workers' organisations proved to be a fifth wheel in the chariot of neo-liberalism. The complete pusillanimity of the union leaders is evident in the capitulation to the bosses and their governments as the latter seek to unload responsibility for this crisis on to the shoulders of the working class and poor.

The masses are quite clear who are responsible. In Italy, the students, a barometer of what is developing from below, have chanted on demonstrations: 'We will not pay for your crisis'. What a contrast to the belly-crawling attitude of the trade union leaders as factories close down around the ears of the working class and all that we hear from the summits of the labour movement is the need for 'shared sacrifices'. Leon Trotsky wrote in the 1930s that the crisis facing the working class, indeed humanity, was summed up in the crisis of leadership of the workers' organisations. The difference today, however, is that we face not just a crisis of leadership but also of organisation, or the lack of it, for the working class as well as a clear programme.

Never in history has the gap – the 'scissors' – between the objective situation of capitalism in crisis and the outlook of the working class, its absence of organisation, particularly political mass parties, been so evident. Given the relentless propaganda barrage, the reality of neo-liberal policies over 30 years and the absence of a political and economic alternative, it is inevitable that there is still, despite the severity of the crash, a residual acquiescence to the 'market', even amongst the working class. Many are stunned by the economic collapse. There is even a lingering view amongst many workers that the present crisis is temporary, that it will all be over by the end of next year, at the latest, and we can then return to the sunny, economic uplands.

Bleak economic outlook

These illusions are fostered by the 'popular' press and one wing of bourgeois economists and commentators. However, another section has drawn the conclusion that this time the party is really over. For instance, Sean O'Grady of The Independent declared bluntly in January: "High unemployment is here to stay". In America's great depression, unemployment did not regain its level of 1929 until 1943 when the US economy was being dragged out of the economic mire by the devastating second world war. This puts in perspective the efforts of the Obama presidency as it seeks to wrestle with the avalanche of job cuts and redundancies which are rising by 600,000 a month. Unemployment in the US and Britain could touch 10% of the workforce in the next year or so, the effects of which in the modern context are akin to a depression.

If anything, the position is even worse in other parts of the world, paradoxically particularly in parts of Europe which were supposed to be immune. The pronouncements of the European Central Bank that the eurozone would escape the worst effects of the virus emanating from the US economy have turned to ashes. The continent has joined the general implosion of world capitalism, as has Japan. The latest forecasts for the latter are that gross domestic product could plunge by almost 10%. The great export-orientated machine of Japan is grinding to a halt, dropping by 3.3% in the last three months of 2008, an annualised rate of 12.7%. It has been joined by Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, while the lesser powers of the continent – Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Britain – risk following Iceland into national bankruptcy.

For the masses, it is as if it is warm and sunny one day and bleak, dark winter the next, without the transition of autumn. The fate of Spain which, along with Ireland, went further than most in an orgy of a debt-fuelled construction and housing boom, is summed up by the story of Zaragoza, featured in the Observer in February. The collapse of the building boom means that unemployment has rocketed in the city by 75% in a year. Spain could see unemployment shooting up from an already unacceptable 14% (3.3 million workers) to 20% by the end of this year. The working class is furious that it will bear the burden, with protesters coming out onto the streets in tens of thousands demanding 'Strike! Strike! Strike!'

Spain is just one example of what could happen to a series of countries, including Britain, which in time will provoke revolutionary explosions. If a conscious lead is not given then riots will ensue with a section of young people even possibly seduced into taking to the road of terrorism, which is a complete blind alley. The explosive events in Greece revealed that anarchistic and terroristic moods amongst a small section would be evident at a certain stage. Mass action, freed from the paralysing influence of opportunist leaders, is the only way forward.

British oil refinery strikes: confusion and clarity

An expression of the indignation was contained even in the eruption of strikes from below of the construction workers in the oil refineries and power stations in Britain. This was a laboratory test in measuring the consciousness of the working class and how different political trends faced up to this. Given the dark night of neo-liberalism, it would be entirely utopian not to expect that elements of nationalism and even racism would be present in the consciousness of some workers, in some instances perhaps the majority. This, however, was not the case in this dispute as we have demonstrated in our weekly paper, The Socialist. It was, in essence, a strike against the capitalist 'race to the bottom' to impose slave labour rates, orchestrated by the bosses on a European scale through the anti-working class legislation, the European Posted Workers Directive, and the EU itself.

This was skewed in the minds of some workers towards nationalism, expressed through 'British jobs for British workers'. This was coined originally by prime minister Gordon Brown in a New Labour conference speech, in an attempt to outflank the far-right British National Party (BNP). Without clear guidance from the leadership, such an initial reaction of the workers, not just in Britain but elsewhere, is no surprise. But this was a minor feature of the strike, and was soon cut across by the intervention of more conscious socialists, particularly from the Socialist Party, who fought for the same rights, wages and conditions for migrant workers. In the Russian revolution, the tsarist general staff feared the presence of one Bolshevik who could act as a 'crystal in a saturated solution', as Trotsky put it, capable in a heated atmosphere of drawing the majority to its side. We witnessed something similar in this strike with socialists and Marxists, some from the Socialist Party, completely cutting across any elements of nationalism or racism. Clear solidarity was expressed with the migrant workers including the printing of a leaflet in Italian and a resolute demand for all workers to receive the rate for the job.

Predictably, some far-left groups without a real presence or even an ear to the real moods of the workers in this strike took a completely false position. The Socialist Workers Party (SWP), for instance, concentrated on criticism and emphasised 'British jobs for British workers' as the main feature of the strike. Pushed aside was the fact that the BNP members who turned up on the picket line were driven off by the workers. Moreover, the strike magnificently achieved an element of workers' control and trade union involvement in the allocation of new jobs. Of course, one swallow does not make a summer but the workers in this industry and elsewhere now have a living example of how to fight in defence of workers' living standards and, at the same time, overcome national or racial divisions in a complicated situation and actually secure a victory for the working class.

In the aftermath of the strike, the 'conciliation' service ACAS has concluded that the foreign-contracted workers did not receive lower rates than the British workers. This is not true, but what is entirely forgotten is that agency workers formally may sometimes receive the same as 'domestic' or permanent workers in their weekly or monthly wage rates. But they do not receive payments for breaks, holidays or the overheads which the bosses worldwide are trying to wipe out as a means of boosting their profitability. The same applies in this dispute. This has been covered over by ACAS and acquiesced to by the full-time trade union officials who did not exactly cover themselves in glory while the strike was on, being concerned to distance themselves from unofficial action which might fall foul of Britain's draconian anti-union laws. This dispute primarily emphasised the positive outcome and saw the secondary features of nationalism swept aside by a combination of the experience of the workers in struggle and the intervention of socialists and Marxists.

Most of the far-left groups have no perception of how a mass movement will evolve, particularly given the character of the last period. This will not be in a perfectly rounded-out fashion but, as Oliver Cromwell described himself, with 'warts and all'. If these ultra-lefts had been present at the beginning of the 1905 Russian revolution, their starting point would have been, no doubt, to condemn Father Gapon, the priest who initially led the masses in the first demonstration under the tsarist flag, with a petition to the 'Little Father', the tsar. In contradistinction to Vladimir Lenin who urged participation in the movement and even discussed and collaborated in the initial phases of the revolution with Gapon, they would have demanded that the priest be removed from the demonstration as a precondition for their participation! How would they have reacted to James Larkin organising mass demonstrations of Catholic and Protestant workers in 1907 with Orange and Green bands in the common struggle against the bosses?

While making no concessions to racial or national prejudices, it is necessary, above all because of the period we have just passed through, for socialists to approach the existing political outlook of the working class in a skilful fashion. We do not have the luxury of the Russian sage who answered the question, 'How do I get to Moscow?' by answering, 'I would not start from here if I was you'. The working class, particularly after a period of alleged social peace, never emerges into struggle fully formed, like Minerva from the head of Jupiter.

Bitter class hatred

There is a gathering rage within the working class, signified by the semi-insurrectionary mood in Greece last year and the colossal anti-Sarkozy strikes which convulsed France on 29 January. Not so long ago, Nicolas Sarkozy jeered that, despite his attacks on the French workers and the youth, 'where are the strikes?' He was given his answer in the elemental revolt indicated by these strikes, which far exceeded in scope and turnout on demonstrations what was anticipated even by the organisers in the trade union leadership. Over two million workers flooded the streets of the cities of France. Sarkozy, sensing the underlying explosive mood before the strikes, immediately gave concessions to the school students as a means of heading off the movement. This did not prevent the strikes taking place, which indicated a whiff of 1968 itself.

There are, however, even in France, which is still politically in the vanguard of the workers' movement in Europe, important differences in the outlook of the French working class between 1968 and now. Paradoxically, the economic situation is far worse for capitalism today than it was in 1968 when the greatest general strike in history took place against the background of a continuing boom. Then, there was a broad socialist and even a revolutionary consciousness amongst workers and students. Given what has transpired in the last three decades combined, as we have pointed out, with the capitulation of the leaders of the workers' organisations to capitalism, the mood is bound to lag behind that of 1968. There is a mixed outlook and a certain political confusion.

There is, undoubtedly, generalised bitter class hatred throughout the advanced capitalist countries for those who are seen as the main authors of the present economic catastrophe, namely the financiers and bankers. Semi-public trials have unfolded in the British parliament and US Congress. The ire of the masses was expressed in France on the streets but, noticeably even here, was initially directed against the bankers and the figure of Sarkozy, despite his demagogic attempts to separate himself from the bankers. If even in France there is not yet a broad anti-capitalist consciousness, then it is perhaps even less the case in other European countries.

In Greece, the situation is somewhat different, with pronounced elements of a pre-revolutionary situation already present. This is reflected in the utter bankruptcy of the Greek bourgeoisie and its state, the desperation of the mass of the working class and the youth at their poverty-stricken condition and their preparedness to struggle, as shown in three general strikes to now. It is also reflected in the complete incapacity of the official parties of capitalism – New Democracy and the ex-socialist PASOK – and the corresponding rise of a new workers' party, SYRIZA. This is combined with the bleak economic future facing Greece. So desperate is the economic situation that its economy has been downgraded by ratings agency Moody's, which could presage a refusal to buy government debt by capitalist investors. This could lead to economic collapse and, in turn, could see Greece leave or be evicted from the eurozone.

It could also herald a series of partial or even outright national bankruptcies, as witnessed in the 1930s in Europe and neo-colonial regions such as Latin America. Greece could be joined very easily by Spain, Portugal and even Ireland if bond traders go on strike and refuse to buy government debt. Faced with this situation, the ruling class would unhesitatingly resort to even more savage measures attacking the wages and conditions of the working class. The conditions of the working class in this situation of decaying capitalism is like a man on a downward escalator frantically running just to maintain his position.

Discrediting capitalism

Quite calmly and 'soberly', the ideologues of capitalism debate the merits of deflation – falling prices, cuts in production and mass unemployment – versus inflation – an increase in prices – as the best means of preserving their position. Deflation and inflation are heads and tails of the same capitalist coin, and the working class is called on to pay. This was shown by one writer in the Financial Times who calmly declared that companies will benefit from inflation because a portion of the debt will disappear, benefitting those companies with fixed-interest debts. On the other hand: "Higher inflation allows more companies and workers to agree to real wage cuts than would otherwise be the case. This is both useful for those firms that are currently uncompetitive, and preferable for [capitalist] society, because wage cuts are more equitable than unemployment". In other words, the working class must pay, profits must be maintained, if not increased, at the expense of the working class.

Clearly, capitalism and with it the working class have entered a brutal new era. The burning question is how to close the gap between the underlying objective situation, of the drawn-out crisis of capitalism, indeed a series of crises, and how to make concrete the slogan of the Italian youth: 'We will not pay for your crisis'. What is involved here – as the recent strikes at the British refineries and the outburst of anger at Cowley at the summary dismissal of 850 workers with an hour's notice show – is the need for a fighting programme. Obviously, the case for a general change from outmoded capitalism to a new socialist society has to be made.

This crisis is proof, if any were needed, that boom and bust, the economic cycle of capitalism described by Karl Marx and so derided by the overwhelming majority of 'intellectual' opinion in the past period, has reasserted its validity. Inequality can no more be overcome within the framework of capitalism than could Canute turn back the waves. Inequality is the essence of capitalism, revealed clearly in the relationship between the workers and the capitalists. As Marx pointed out, the capitalists buy the labour power of the working class in order to exploit it. The working class only receives back a portion of the new value it has created, the rest being unpaid labour, the profit that is garnered by the capitalists. The class struggle, as Trotsky pointed out, is nothing else but the struggle over the division of the surplus product. The more that this surplus product is fought over – particularly when profits stagnate or decline, as is the case now – the more intense the class struggle. The starting point of the working class in this situation must be a determination to resist the onslaught of capital, to defend all past gains, before going on to make new conquests.

Contrary to what the bourgeois ideologists argue, capitalism, particularly in its neo-liberal phase, is not the best nor the most efficient vehicle to maximise production and distribute products efficiently to the peoples of the world. The idea that capitalism was a seamless system, not subject to abrupt breakdowns, which was prevalent particularly following the collapse of the Berlin wall, is now utterly discredited. Tucked away from the gaze of the working class in their 'quality' journals, the defenders of capitalism admit this: "Conservatives… actually believe in the capitalist system. Anyone who understands capitalism knows that it is programmed to fail from time to time. Conservative economic teachings hold that recessions are much like the weather. It may be possible to mitigate its effects, but impossible to change its nature". (Peter Oborne, right-wing political columnist for the Daily Mail.)

A transitional approach

No mention of a rosy future: if capitalism breaks down we, the working class, must pay. This is the essence of Oborne's stormy weather scenario, a world in which the state is the umbrella for capitalism while the workers receive a soaking in the form of mass unemployment. We are not going to pay and we must demand an entirely more humane system. Socialism must be the policy of the working class. Even Newsweek declared: "We are all socialists now". Unfortunately, this is not yet the case for the overwhelming majority of the victims of this system, the working class and the poor. Therefore, while demanding a democratic, socialist planned economy, as a crowning idea in the programme of socialists and Marxists, it is necessary to put forward fighting transitional demands in the current situation.

In pre-1914 social democracy, such an approach was considered unnecessary. Its programme was divided between a maximum programme, the idea of socialism, and a minimum day-to-day programme. That decisively changed with the onset of the first world war which led to the revolutionary explosions in Russia and the mass struggles and revolutionary waves which detonated in the aftermath of the 1917 revolution throughout Europe and the world. In this changed situation, the struggle for basic reforms and even the defence of past gains, came up directly against the limits of the system of capitalism itself. The Bolsheviks therefore formulated a transitional programme as a bridge – taking into account the day-to-day demands of the working class – from the existing level of consciousness to the idea of the socialist revolution. This was necessary even during the Russian revolution because of the differing and changing outlooks of the different sections of the working class. This was summed up in Lenin's wonderful pamphlet, The Threatening Catastrophe and How to Avoid It.

Following in Lenin's footsteps, Trotsky formulated for the revolutionary Fourth International the Transitional Programme: The Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International. This was adopted in 1938 on the eve of what Trotsky correctly anticipated would be a devastating world war. Out of this conflagration would come a revolutionary wave and the transitional programme and its demands could play a key role in this process. A revolutionary wave did ensue but social democracy and Stalinism stepped in to save capitalism in the post-war situation. This in turn laid the political preconditions for the boom, the spectacular economic fireworks, which developed between 1950 and 1975. Consequently, Trotsky's ideas, which were fashioned for a revolutionary epoch, were never fully implemented in this period.

Some, like the SWP, therefore jettisoned both the transitional programme and the transitional approach. We defended Trotsky's method but recognised that it was necessary to modify some of the demands for different conditions, which the boom represented. The current situation facing the workers' movement in Britain, Europe and across the globe, however, means that this approach, if not all the demands of 1938, is now vital in the present struggle. In fact, it is more relevant now than when it was written in 1938 because the conditions which are developing are akin to the period anticipated. Trotsky demanded, for instance, 'work or full maintenance' in the teeth of endemic mass unemployment. We demand today, 'useful work, or a living income'. The working class refuses to shoulder the burden of this crisis. Let the bosses pay! If they cannot guarantee a maximum existence for the working class, we can't afford their system!

Nationalisation

It is also necessary in this explosive period to take up the partial demands of the working class both at the level of wages and conditions but also involving governmental action or inaction. A case in point is the burning anger directed against the banks, not just the crooks who have been caught, like Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford, but the whole fraternity who have bankrupted their own industry and threaten to drag the whole of society, including the working class, into the abyss. They have allowed the state to step in to rescue them through massive bailouts. Yet the defeated, right-wing Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, is far from grateful. He has described the increase in state debt as "generational theft". But was it not his talisman, previous right-wing vice-president, Dick Cheney, who declared that "Reagan proved [US government] deficits don't matter"? It has still not stopped McCain, along with other Republicans, from considering full nationalisation of the banks.

Capitalist politicians can accept state rescue, so long as it is then run completely along capitalist lines and with the prospect of returning the 'nationalised' industries in the future to the very same private interests which ruined them in the first place. Some commentators in Britain envisage that banks could be nationalised and remain in the state sector for an estimated nine years.

The hypocrisy of McCain and his touching concern for future generations is belied by the colossal expenditure on the Iraq war, probably $3 trillion in total, which he supported to the hilt. The corruption of Madoff is as nothing to the creaming off of government cash by the 'privatised' construction industry to 'reconstruct Iraq'. Patrick Cockburn in the Independent commented: "The real looting of Iraq after the invasion was by US officials and not by the slums of Baghdad". In one case, auditors working for the government said "that $57.8 million was sent in 'pallet upon pallet of hundred-dollar bills' to the US comptroller for south-central Iraq… who had himself photographed standing with the mound of money". Although the extent of the robbery will probably never be known, up to $125 billion (£88bn) has simply disappeared. This is just one example of the way that the capitalists, not just in the US but world wide, use the state as a colossal milch cow.

The demand, in Britain and in the US in particular, is not for bailouts for the bankers but for the working and middle classes. Even the demand for nationalisation – because it is aimed at the bankers who are seen as responsible for the mess and which both Obama and the Brown government may be compelled to carry through despite its unpalatability to them – is not as popular as in previous periods. This is because the experience of the partial nationalisation so far in Britain and de facto in the US has alienated mass public opinion. The boards of these partially nationalised companies remain unreconstructedly capitalist in character. There were no celebrations similar to those which greeted the taking over of the mines in 1948 by the Labour government of the time, with the flying of red flags and big hopes for the future of the working class. This is because, for instance, Northern Rock's state takeover was marked with increased repossessions of homes, the sacking of 4,000 workers and, latterly, lavish bonuses for some of the capitalist crew who remain in charge of this bank. This is a form of state capitalism, not a step in the direction of socialism, as advocated by even reformist socialists in the Labour Party in the past, when it was a workers' party at bottom.

The need for democratic planning

On the other hand, the 'market' offers no alternative. In Britain in 1999, for instance, two thirds of jobs created were not in the much-vaunted 'entrepreneurial' private sector but were in the state sector. This itself is a confession of bankruptcy by capitalism. Moreover, the structures in private industry are not at all an example of the 'meritocracy' beloved of the upholders of the market. Indeed, so convulsive have been the effects of the crisis that more and more capitalist writers have revealed the real character of the conditions and management which are such an intrinsic part of neo-liberalism. For instance, Simon Caulkin in the Observer compares the structure of big business – including British Telecom, which the government, it has been leaked, has contingency plans to renationalise in the event of its collapse – as more of a mirror image of Stalinism than a prettified picture of an ideal capitalist firm. They are, according to him, "zombie-like in their structural and strategic similarity" with Stalinism.

Rather rudely, he declares of management: "With their faces towards the [chief executive officer] and their arses towards the customer" most managers are more concerned with earnings targets than producing a worthwhile product. The world's most efficient, conventionally managed corporation, General Electric, "spends 40% – that is, $60 billion – of its revenues on administration and overheads… The managers of large western corporations have much more in common with the apparatchiks of the command economies than is recognised". How much cheaper and efficient it would be to take over these firms, establish a system of workers' control and management, and install a socialist planned economy!

Caulkin's article is both a concession to Marx's argument that the internal management of even a capitalist factory – Marx was speaking about the conditions of the nineteenth century – was an example of planning. The factory system, Marx said, applied to the economy and the world as a whole, would represent democratic socialist planning through the elimination of the market. Now, ironically, giant corporations – monopolies – have a top-heavy bureaucracy on the lines of the former Soviet Union. The solution lies not with Stalinism or with the capitalist 'market' but with democratic socialist planning. This requires the opening of the books for inspection by representatives of the unions and working-class organisations, small businesspeople, etc, in order to inform working people of what is the real situation as a preparatory step for realising such a plan.

Bridging the gap

The need for a transitional programme in this era arises from the mixed consciousness of working-class people. This consciousness will be shaken and changed by the march of events. But the development of a rounded-out socialist consciousness, firstly of the most politically developed layers and then of the mass of the working class, can also be enormously facilitated by a transitional approach and a transitional programme – by adopting the method of Leon Trotsky brought up to date and filled out by the experience of the working class itself in struggle. This provides the bridge from the consciousness of working people today to the idea of socialist change. Sectarians have no need for such a bridge because they have no intention of passing over from the study, armchair or sideline to engage with the working class and, together with it, helping to change consciousness and increasing identification with socialism.

We have entered an entirely new period for the working class of Britain, Europe and the world. Even if Obama manages to put a partial cushion under US capitalism and thereby the world through stimulus programmes – and this is not at all certain – the situation that will arise from this crisis will be entirely different than the one before its onset. At best, the world economy will experience anaemic growth with the stubborn maintenance of mass unemployment. This, like fatty tissue in the body, is a symptom of a declining organism. Capitalism, however, will not disappear from the scene of history automatically. It is necessary to forge a powerful mass weapon which will be assisted by raising the level of understanding of working-class people – helped by a transitional programme – which can provide the helping hand for this failed system to make way for socialism.

Without such an approach, there is the danger that it will not be immediately evident to working people, even faced with the present economic catastrophe, what is the viable alternative. In the car industry, for instance, where wages have been slashed due to mass layoffs, there is an instinctive understanding by workers that there is 'no market' for their present products. But, given the high technique and skill that exists, it would take very little to convert the car industry, with a market faced with massive overproduction and a glut, to the production of useful goods, including green, environmentally-friendly vehicles. These are urgently needed for the world's population, in the context of a sustainable, environmentally-friendly transport system. Such a switch in production was achieved at the outbreak of the second world war but is frankly impossible given the chaos of capitalism today. This does, however, pose the demand for an alternative socialist society.

The gap between the increasingly worsening objective situation and the consciousness of the working class will close in the next period. Events – and explosive events at that – will help to ensure this. On the edge of an abyss, the mass of workers will confront the capitalist system – sometimes without a clear idea of what can be put in its place. The journey to a socialist and revolutionary consciousness will, however, be shortened considerably, the pain much less, if the working class embraces the transitional method and a transitional programme linking day-to-day struggles with the idea of socialism.

No to any burdens of the crisis of capitalism being placed on the backs of workers! No to mass unemployment, particularly the frightening prospect of a new generation being permanently on the dole. Nationalise the banks but with democratic, socialist forms of organisation, including the involvement of representatives of the working class, unions, small businesspeople, etc. A democratic socialist state sector will itself pose the issue of going further towards more nationalisation, encompassing the commanding heights of the economy. On this road, hope is offered to working-class people against the dead-end of stagnating, decaying world capitalism.

Peter Taaffe, CWI

23 February 2009

Review: Slumdog Millionaire

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE FAILS TO CAPTURE THE POPULAR IMAGINATION OF THE AVERAGE INDIAN AND OF COURSE THE PEOPLE OF THE 'SLUMS'

You would expect a film that has won five Critics' Choice Awards, four Golden Globes and seven Bafta Awards, and has been nominated for ten Academy Awards to be outstanding, or at least have some qualities that can inspire.

But Slumdog Millionaire, despite the hype, failed to transcend the parameters of the average expectations of a quality film.

It also failed to impress Indian audiences. In fact Time magazine reported that when it opened in India only 25% of the seats were full. The masses of India are always suspicious of large scale 'art productions'. They know through experience that the main aim of these projects is to make profits by selling their poor conditions.

This was reflected in the slogans such as "Poverty for sale" on the placards during protests at the home of Anil Kapoor, the lead actor in the movie. The protests were ignited by the anger of slum inhabitants at the way the film deals with life in the slums and the use of 'dog' in the title.

Slumdog Millionaire is written and directed with one eye on the western markets and the other eye on the easy cash that can be made from exploiting the massive film market in India and among Indians around the world.

People looking to make profit in the film industry have noted that some non-English language Bollywood movies make more money in Britain than popular English-language movies produced in Europe. The Indian film industry is very attractive for investors, particularly those from Britain which has a significant Indian population.

British script writers and investors have been looking for the magic formula to produce a commercial movie in English that would be popular in both India and Britain, thus taking a share in the millions made by the Indian film industry.

But Slumdog Millionaire fails to capture the popular imagination of the average Indian and of course the people of the 'slums'. However, the movie attempts to grab the western mind with some shocking imagery.

Disappointing

In a world where the poor are repeatedly told that getting rich is the only way to end their misery, many dream of being a millionaire. But Slumdog Millionaire only glances across the surface of that question before quickly moving on to the cheap love story.

The boy from the slums gets on to the Indian version of Who wants to be a millionaire and wins the 20 million rupees maximum prize. His life story is told through an interrogation of how he knows all the answers.

Slumdog is a very average story made exotic by its setting in India. The extremes of poverty and violence graphically portrayed are not novel but they will be new in the context of a blockbuster for a European audience.

The movie has a very promising start with fast camera action following the boys running through the slums. The children played their characters very well but then the screenplay settles on a patronising middle-class tourist's perspective of the slum, where even the toilet's contents are made to look beautiful on the screen!

Maybe it was this prettifying of the deep and horrific poverty endemic in India, this so-called 'emerging' power, that led Prince Charles to recently recommend the architectural form of the slums as a design model for meeting the residential needs of today.

If anyone is keen to watch this film to find out about life in the Indian slum they will be disappointed. Salaam Bombay!, directed by Mira Nair in 1988, gives a far deeper insight.

Directed by Danny Boyle

Reviewed by Senan and Sarah

SRI LANKA: QUARTER OF A MILLION CIVILIANS TRAPPED IN WAR ZONE

SOCIALISTS DEMAND ACTION TO END THE NIGHTMARE

Faced with starvation and death, between 250,000 and 400,000 civilians are trapped in a small area in the north of Sri Lanka. They have been in a nightmare situation since early January, when the Sri Lankan military moved into Kilinochchi – the headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The LTTE have been fighting for a separate homeland for over 30 years.

Recently the LTTE have suffered a massive military setback in the face of the Sri Lankan government's military offensive. Before the military moved into Kilinochchi and into Mullaithivu town, the LTTE had evacuated the Tamil population to the areas where they maintain control. The LTTE now only controls small parts of Mullaithivu, a northern district surrounded by the Sri Lankan military. There are no housing or food facilities in this area. Relief agencies and the media are banned from the war zone by the government.

Last week the Sri Lankan government announced a very small safety zone near Mullaithivu. Some relief agencies and media personnel are allowed into this safety zone but only under military escort. This safety zone, however, does not have sufficient shelter, medicine and food to accommodate the hundreds of thousands trapped in this hell.

Mullaithivu is one of the poorest regions in the country. As part of the war on the LTTE, this area has been suffering under a government blockade for months. In the last two weeks this situation has worsened. There have been no reports of food supplies to these people. Thousands are believed to be starving to death, including thousands of children.

This situation is described by the relief agencies as a "silent tsunami". Not only are the fleeing people's conditions worsening and levels of starvation at breaking point, but they are also under fire from the Sri Lankan military. Even in the safety zone there are reports of heavy shelling. There are various reports of hundreds and even thousands of deaths, but, due to the government's information blackout, it is impossible to know how many have died.

Humanitarian crisis

The government has made no attempt whatsoever to protect the trapped people. Many may not even be aware of the safety zone, but it serves as a propaganda point for the government. Meanwhile, disgusting patriotic rhetoric and a ruthless and racist attitude is displayed by Rajapakse, the current president, and his ruling family and friends. Much of this goes unchallenged. Journalists and other media personnel under the constant threat of physical attacks by government-sponsored thugs. With the brutal murder of Lasantha Wickmeratunge, one of the country's most respected journalists, the government intended to send a message that all who seek to speak out about government corruption or to tell the truth about the government's persecution and military assaults will face repression or even death. Even Sri Lanka's German ambassador was called before the government and criticised after speaking against the media suppression at Lasantha's funeral. Since Lasantha's death another editor has been stabbed and numerous other attacks on media personnel have taken place.

As the appalling humanitarian crisis unfolds in the north of Sri Lanka, the government leaders are sponsoring celebrations in the south. The media have been urged to produce patriotic articles and reports.

The LTTE did not comply with the request to move the civilians to the safety zone. Having evacuated the population to territory under their control, the LTTE have shown no intention of letting anyone get away. This marks a change to previous conflicts when people have been able to move into areas controlled by the government army as they advanced. This time no one was allowed to escape. The LTTE has not made any attempt to create a safety zone in the area they control. Instead they are moving people further back into areas where there are no facilities - water, food, medicine or shelter. There are no hospitals in these areas. There are no facilities to treat the injured. There are no services to deal with the growing numbers of dead bodies and there are reports of corpses lying in the fields for days. These horrors go beyond those seen in all the years of war in Sri Lanka.

The Sri Lankan government believes it can achieve victory over the LTTE before 4 February, when they are planning massive 'Freedom Day' independence celebrations. The United Socialist Party (USP), the Sri Lankan section of the Committee for a Workers' International, has helped to create a broad opposition called the 'Freedom Platform' which is organising a major protest on the same day. It is also calling for solidarity protests internationally on 4 February. Its main slogans are: Freedom to live. Freedom of expression - in the media and in politics. No to war. No to killings and kidnappings.

Despite the government's attempts to silence any kind of opposition to its war drive and racist chauvinism, the USP is continuing its campaigning against the government. not only against the offensive on the population in the north and the suppression of free speech and democratic rights in the south. It urges a united struggle of Sinhala and Tamil workers and poor throughout the island to get rid of the rotten regime of Rajapakse. It stands firmly for the right of Tamil-speaking people to self-determination and for a socialist alternative to capitalism and imperialism.

Senan, CWI

30 January 2009

 

己丑牛年(2009年)新年快乐！
星期天, 25 一月 2009.

俯首甘为孺子牛！我们在前进！

chinaworker.info
cwi.china@gmail.com

2009年，注定是一个不同寻常的年份。1919年"五四运动"90周年，1949年中国革命60周年，1989年六四运动20周年，在世界经济危机席卷之下，人类社会的前途，无产者的命运值得每一个觉悟的工人与青年思考。

世界上最大规模的人口流动遍布全国,但这次春节对于众多的民众而言却是对未来充满了不确定性. 已经有超过一千万农民工失去了工作，但更为不幸的是这一切却才刚刚开始。许多工人仍然被拖欠着工资，但节后他们的雇主却会关门倒闭或者索性就此消失。当节后数以百万计的工人再次回到城市里的时候却会发现已经无业可就，中国快速增长的经济遭受了全球危机严重的影响。执政当局警告说会出现一轮新的犯罪高潮（但事实上农民工却是犯罪浪潮的第一批牺牲者—盗走劳动者维持生活最起码的血汗工资难道不是犯罪吗？），但当局所恐惧的却是因为群众无路可走而进行的抗议可能"威胁他们的稳定"。不过事实上正是当局的资本主义政策导致了这一状况—将中国转变成为"世界的血汗工厂"，而如今却变为了"世界的失业大军"。这一政策带来的结果是数以百万计的利润为极少数百万富翁（美元计）所掌握；而如今由于经济危机这一世界性的资本主义体系不再需要"血汗工厂"的产品。没有社会保障、健康服务和养老金，中国庞大的农民工大军不得不继续保持流动，追寻越来越少的工作机会。而这种为追逐利润而形成的体系只有我们社会主义者所追寻的制度才能实现根本改变。

未来的一年将充满危机、失业、经济动荡。但它也将成为斗争的一年—进行斗争以改变群众的根本状况组织起来进行反击。作为个别的个体我们是孤立无助的，企求于老板和国家机器的怜悯是无望的， 只有组织起来才能发挥我们的力量！

天行健，君子自强不息；地势坤，君子厚德载物。我们努力，我们奋斗，我们前进，因为我们相信一个半世纪前马克思所说的必能实现：

世界上最古老最巩固的帝国八年来被英国资产者的印花布带到了一场必将对文明产生极其重要结果的社会变革的前夕。当我们的欧洲反动分子不久的将来在亚洲逃难，最后到达万里长城，到达最反动最保守的堡垒的大门的时候，他们说不定会看见上面写着：中华共和国　自由、平等、博爱。 [卡尔·马克思《农民起义和太平天国革命》]

工人们、青年们、社会主义者们，努力啊，奋起啊！

祝中国的劳动大众牛年快乐！

祝全世界所有的无产者们中国新年快乐！